Solar Fuel From The Sky

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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Exhibit 6 shows RDI Consulting’s base case forecast peak demand,9 which is growing at the same rate and by 2010 is expected to have increased by 45,091 MW to 248,518 MW. Exhibit 5: Energy Demand Forecast by Region, 2001-2010 SOURCE: RDI Consulting NOTE: Base case forecast. Gigawatt-hours are a thousand times megawatt-hours (MWh). Exhibit 6: Peak Demand Forecast by Region, 2001-2010 SOURCE: RDI Consulting NOTE: Base case forecast. The Drivers of Growth Since the 1991 recession, annual growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has averaged about 4%. During the same time period, annual electric demand growth has averaged about 2.7% nationwide. The consensus among economists is that real GDP growth will be slower by an average of 0.5% to 1.0% through 2005. A slower U.S. economy will mean lower economic activ- ity in the West and lower demand for western goods and services. In the short term, RDI Consulting believes that an economic slowdown will not have a substantial impact on electricity demand growth, although the impacts will vary with regions. A prolonged economic slowdown, however, will have a more substantial impact on demand as structural shifts in the economy and population migration occur. Economic activity and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of electricity demand. Region Energy Demand (GWh) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 Northwest 207,693 211,499 215,608 219,753 225,496 254,148 CO and WY 58,174 59,728 61,321 62,405 63,614 69,485 California 266,883 272,064 277,601 283,704 292,174 337,635 Southwest 133,487 137,074 140,784 143,265 146,072 162,629 Prairie States 87,637 89,461 91,221 92,901 94,473 100,976 Texas 338,285 345,635 352,904 359,261 367,263 409,072 TOTAL 1,092,160 1,115,462 1,139,439 1,161,290 1,189,092 1,333,945 Region Peak Demand (MW) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 Northwest 29,637 30,180 30,766 31,357 32,177 36,265 CO and WY 9,782 10,043 10,311 10,493 10,696 11,684 California 52,805 53,830 54,926 56,133 57,809 66,804 Southwest 28,311 29,072 29,859 30,385 30,980 34,492 Prairie States 16,920 17,272 17,612 17,936 18,239 19,495 Texas 65,973 67,407 68,824 70,064 71,625 79,778 TOTAL 203,427 207,803 212,297 216,369 221,527 248,518 12

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