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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY these server farms will add only 1,500 MW of incremental demand between 1998 and 2003 nationwide, or less than an average of 300 MW a year. Even if this entire load were located in the West, it would constitute less than 6% of the total demand growth—a rather small impact that could be more than compensated for by the observed higher energy efficiency of the digital economy. In summary, population growth and economic activity remain the classic drivers of demand. However, in the future, price-responsive demand may result in significant reductions of peak demand due to load shifting. Higher electricity prices are expected to dampen overall energy demand. With its emphasis on service industries and increased electronic traffic, the digital economy coincides with a reduction of electricity demand growth, not an increase. Reserve Margin Requirements The target reserve margins used in this analysis are the reserve margins at which we expect that new power plants would earn an adequate return on capital and that consumers would obtain the level of reliability they are willing to pay for. At reserve margins higher than the target, we expect prices to fall to levels that do not provide adequate return on new investment (absent regulatory intervention), while at lower reserve margins, generators could receive above-average returns. They are not the actual reserve margins in the region or the reserve margins required by the sys- tem operator, regulator, or NERC region. RDI Consulting’s regional target reserve margins reflect certain assumptions about the availability and reliability of power plants, required levels of operating reserves, hourly load profiles, weather patterns, and the value consumers attach to reliability. For example, in the Northwest, where hydro dams account for 77% of all the installed generation in the region, required reserve mar- gins are higher than in regions with lower dependence on hydro. Because of the dominance of hydro in the Northwest and the fact that demand peaks in the winter (when hydro generation is limited), the target reserve margin would have to be even higher than the 29% shown in Exhibit 3 in order to provide adequate reliability absent an interconnection. However, the Western Interconnection allows power exchange and thus overall lower reserve margins. Going forward, the construction of large amounts of gas-fired combined cycle plants, which are expected to have higher reliability than existing fossil plants, could mean that lower reserve mar- gins could provide the same reliability as we have today. In addition, if regulatory practice were changed to allow price-responsive demand, this could result in significant load shifting, which would reduce peak demand and thus allow for lower installed capacity as well as lower reserve margins. A lower reserve margin could result, because meeting peak demand could become less essential due to the responsiveness of load. 14PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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