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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Because the risk of building new generation had become so high, with cost recovery increasing- ly uncertain and because non-utility generation in the form of independent power production was encouraged by PURPA, utilities essentially ceased construction of new power plants. IPPs were now building the large majority of whatever power plants were being built. IPPs had been building and operating primarily cogeneration facilities and were familiar with com- bined cycle power plants. At the end of the 1990s turbine manufacturers had excess turbine production capacity because of the slump in new plant construction. The IPPs and turbine manu- facturers realized that, with the low natural gas prices at the time and rock-bottom prices for tur- bines, combined with the efficiency advances and the ability to burn natural gas in power plants again, gas-fired combined cycle plants had come of age. Fast and cheap to build, cleaner than any other fossil fuel plant, and at $2 to $3 per million Btu (mmBtu) gas prices, gas-fired power plants were now the fossil-fired power plant of choice. Today nearly 90% of all new capacity is built by IPPs—a result of the conditions of the 1970s and 1980s and associated legislation. With few exceptions, all IPP capacity runs on natural gas. The first IPP projects were built in California in the 1980s encouraged by attractive power pur- chase agreements (PPAs), primarily in the form of what were called Standard Offer 2 and Standard Offer 4. Later, IPPs became active in the Northeast and in Texas. Both areas jumped into electric industry restructuring by allowing retail competition. This allowed wholesale genera- tors to sell electricity to marketers, instead of to utilities, which, in turn, were now able to mar- ket the power directly to retail customers. The presence of high-cost utility generation in both regions created an opportunity for generators to win market share from the incumbent utilities. In the Northeast, the expectation of low-cost Canadian gas further encouraged the development of gas-fired IPP generation. In Texas, easy access to natural gas supplies and favorable permit- ting rules made the state one of the most popular development areas. Large amounts of capaci- ty were proposed and built in the state—so much indeed that today Texas has more generating capacity than it needs. Obstacles to construction of new power plants, whether by utilities or IPPs, include: markets that limit prices to levels below the cost of building new capacity; significant uncertainty about what rules and regulations will be in the future; and opposition to construction by local communities. In most regions of the country, these obstacles have not been significant enough to slow the pace of power plant development. In California, however, each of these factors was present and the result was a hiatus in plant construction at levels commensurate with the increase in demand. This and other factors, such as low hydro generation in the Northwest, a hot summer, and gas-pipeline transmission congestion, created the supply shortage that became the California energy crisis. 18PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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