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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY It is our view that IPPs are competent and innovative developers who can, and will, play an active role in the deployment of renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar. If economic incen- tives can be properly structured, IPPs could provide enormous momentum for renewables deployment. The western states must provide tax or other economic incentives and ensure a stable regulatory environment for renewables, in order to enable IPPs to build wind and solar projects, if the policy goal of a more diversified energy portfolio with a greater use of non-hydro renewables is to be met. New Plants to Meet Future Demand RDI’s NEWGen database, which tracks power plant development, reveals an explosion of new projects in the West totaling 133,747 MW by 2010. Clearly, not all of these proposed power plants will actually reach completion. In order to arrive at a forecast of expected power plant additions, RDI Consulting built a detailed probability-based forecast model, which applies proba- bilities to specific units based on the unit’s status (proposed, early development, advanced devel- opment, sure development, or under construction), region, and technology. For example, proj- ects in the advanced development stage receive a higher probability of completion than those in early development. Similarly, projects in a region with a great number of competing projects receive lower probabilities than those in a region with few competing projects. Furthermore, based on our understanding of construction timelines, delay periods based on technology type are included in the model. Dates of successful projects slip according to the delay period proba- bility distribution. The model also accounts for projects with more than one phase—subsequent project phases that depend on a prior phase can only occur if the model determines that the prior phase is successful. Exhibit 11 shows the year 2001 and future demand and supply balance in the West. In summer 2001, 9,201 MW of new plants commenced operation in the West and 24,915 were under construction. An Exhibit 11: New Generating Capacity Required to Meet Future Demand in the West, 2001-2010 360,000 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 Add. Proposed Capacity Forecast New Under Construction Began Operating Existing Minus Retirements Peak Demand Peak + Reserve 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 21 MWPDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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