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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY additional 99,631 MW of capacity is proposed and our model forecasts that, of this, 21,161 MW will eventually be built. How much of the additional proposed capacity will come on-line depends in great measure on the retirements of existing generation and overall wholesale market prices. Some areas, in particular California, have an aging fleet of power plants that are approaching the end of their operating lives. The power plant sites on which they sit are quite valuable, and in many cases repowering of these power plants has been considered, or in fact, undertaken. Retirements or repowering will be driven by both economic and environmental considerations. Exhibit 11 includes a number of retirements that have been announced, but more retirements during the next decade are likely. Incremental opportunities for cogeneration projects and tax incentives for certain power projects, particularly renewables, could result in capacity additions beyond our forecast. Nevertheless, under our base case scenario, by 2010 an additional 23,000 MW of generating capacity beyond the 55,277 MW expected13 by RDI Consulting to come on-line by 2005 (see Exhibit 9) has to be built to meet expected demand growth. It is, however, clear from Exhibit 11 that developers, marketers, and capital markets have responded to power shortage conditions and are rapidly building new plants that will provide cus- tomers with a reliable supply of electricity. New power plants are getting built in markets with regulated reserve requirements (such as the installed capacity, or ICAP, obligations in the NERC reliability regions New York or PJM) and in markets with no required reserve requirements (such as California). They are getting built in regions with independent system operators (ISOs) and in regions without ISOs. New power plants are even getting built in markets with significant regula- tory risks and significant permitting and environmental hurdles. Developers are responding to the needs of the power markets, whatever the structure. Nevertheless, a minimum of regulatory certainty must be in place. For example, unless California recovers quickly from the debacle of spring 2001 and begins attracting power infrastructure investments through a predictable regulatory framework, the state could be headed into another crisis just a few years down the road. In our work with developers we are seeing companies hes- itating to enter the California market because of the looming uncertainty. This is becoming a big- ger factor relative to local opposition and environmental constraints as the real reason why capacity does not get built. Residential Users Affected by Rising Demand Residential customers that use natural gas will be increasingly confronted by rising and more volatile gas prices due, in large measure, to the growing demand for natural gas by electric power generation. In 2000, of the total U.S. consumption of 22.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natu- ral gas, about one-fifth, or 4.9 Tcf, was attributable to residential use. Power generation account- ed for 9.3 Tcf. Natural gas use by power plants has accelerated significantly since 1950. 22PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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