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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY In 1950, power generation accounted for a little over 10% of natural gas consumption, but by the end of 2000 it had quadrupled to 40%, while the share of residential use held constant. Natural gas consumption by IPPs grew from 2.5 Tcf in 1999 to 3.0 Tcf by the end of 2000 and is poised for a significant increase in the coming years when over 80,000 MW of new gas-fired IPP generation is expected to come on-line in the U.S. It is clear that power generation is competing for an increasing share of North America’s natural gas supply. Coupled with a pipeline infrastructure that is old and out of capacity, a tug-of-war between power generation and traditional gas users is unavoidable. We predict that this will result in greater market volatility and the potential for upwardly spiraling gas prices. It appears that the greatest price volatility will not come from increasing wellhead prices, but from high transportation costs on pipelines. However, transportation costs are a point where a regulatory commission could exact control in an effort to mitigate gas price volatility. Changes in the way the natural gas market operates, and how fast and efficiently market partici- pants embrace such changes, will determine the level of price and attendant volatility that resi- dential customers could see on their energy bills in the future. An important factor in the California energy crisis was the limit on natural gas pipeline capacity and how that limit allowed natural gas prices to spiral out of control. Energy Conservation Can Help The enormous electricity savings achieved in California this summer have shown that energy conservation is indeed real and that it can amount to much more than good will. Corporate and private measures to conserve energy reduced both energy and peak demand in the state: During the months of June through August 2001 peak demand was on average 11% below the year 2000 levels and energy consumption was 8% lower. If these data are adjusted for growth and weather, the savings are even bigger. While the beginning of the summer was relatively cool, August 2001 was warmer than average and California’s energy conservation measures were put to the test: the Golden State passed. California has now proven that the call of society and policy makers for reductions in electric energy consumption will be answered if it is loud and clear enough and if consumers understand that forgoing the use of electricity will yield significant results and no blackouts. Savings in elec- tricity consumption can relate to both savings in energy and reductions in peak demand. Both have very positive impacts on reliability and the price of electricity. In the next sections we will discuss energy efficiency and reductions in peak demand. Energy Efficiency In 1998, the residential sector used 1,122,000 GWh of electricity, or 35% of all the electricity consumed in the United States. Sixty percent of that consumption was due to appliances, such 23PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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