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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY countries. Oil resources in the Lower 48 states are beginning to show signs of declining produc- tion and new deep-water natural gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico are depleting faster than histori- cally had been the case, which may require increased drilling activity. This is in the face of an ever-increasing demand for energy. In the first half of the 20th century western states were faced with a different resource chal- lenge: how to supply adequate amounts of water. The result was the Colorado River Project, which culminated in the construction of the Hoover and Glen Canyon dams. Today, western states are assessing how to meet the West’s future energy needs. The President’s National Energy Policy14 has provided some ideas in this regard, but western states will need to find a solution that reflects their resources, geography, and the expectations of their people. In this section we will provide an overview of western energy resource options, which will be discussed in greater detail in Chapter 7, “A Closer Look at Energy Resource Options.” In Exhibit 13 we provide estimates of the energy potential of the five most important future west- ern energy resources: coal, gas, hydro, wind, and solar. We have not included nuclear genera- tion in this summary table, because it is our view that in the near and intermediate term no nuclear facilities will be built in the West. We further believe that biomass will only play a small role in meeting future western energy supply, because resources appear to be insufficient in rela- tion to western energy needs. For geothermal generation, RDI Consulting found no adequate information that would allow an estimate of the geothermal energy potential and for that reason could not quantify this renewable energy. Nevertheless, where available, geothermal energy is an excellent source of power, because of its relatively low cost and high value in the market due to Exhibit 13: An Overview of Western Electric Resource Options and Their Energy Potential Proven and Likely Economic Reserve 2001 Demand/Emissions Maximum Use of Resource Natural Gas 577,222 Billion Ft3 Coal 123,479 Million tons Hydro N/A Wind N/A Solar N/A Peak Demand/ Capacity (MW) Heat Rate (HHV) mmBtu/kWh Capacity Factor %, Min-Max (5) 203,428 203,428 (1) 7,100 61.3-80 203,428 (1) 9,500 61.3-85 50,870 (2) N/A 44.8 282,506 (3) N/A 25-45 1,040,248 (4) N/A 20-25 Energy (GWh) Depletion at 2001 Demand (years) Air emissions (000) tons/year NOx SOx CO2 1,092,160 Actual 1,045 1,283 658,000 1,092,160 42 (6) 115 5 453,246 1,092,160 215 882 1,054,153 199,400 Indefinite Using Best Available Control Technologies (BACT) (7) 830 None None None 930,455 Indefinite None None None 2,098,433 Indefinite None None None SOURCE: RDI Consulting NOTE: Assumes current technologies for resource recovery and energy production. (1) Capped at 2001 western peak demand of 203,428 MW. (2) There is little additional hydro generating potential in the western states above current levels. (3) Source: RDI Consulting analysis, see section, "Wind" (4) Source: RDI Consulting analysis, see section, " The Solar Energy Potential." (5) For fossil fuels, the minimum capacity factor is based on 2001 energy demand. For typical capacity factors of generating technologies, see Exhibit 36. (6) Accounts for natural gas used for residential and industrial at 2001 consumption. (7) For details, see Exhibit 15 26PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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