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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Exhibit 14: Air Emissions from Western Power Plants, 2001-2010, Base Case Forecast Region Northwest CO and WY California Southwest Prairie States Texas TOTAL/AVERAGE 69 149 18 272 210 327 1,045 2001 Total (000) Tons NOx SO2 114 165 – 191 270 543 1,283 Total (000) Tons NOx 66 145 9 258 230 175 883 SO2 63 186 12 150 294 384 1,089 NOx -3 -4 -9 -14 20 -152 -162 2010 (000) Tons Change over 2001 SO2 -51 21 12 -41 24 -159 -194 NOx -4% -3% -50% -5% 10% -46% -16% Percent SO2 -45% 13% N/A -21% 9% -29% -15% SOURCE: RDI Consulting NOTE: Emissions based on RDI Consulting’s base case demand and supply forecast. Emissions for 2001 were based on the capacity mix during 2001 and were calculated using a plant dispatch model, called the Interregional Electric Market Model (IREMM). IREMM is a com- puter model that simulates electricity markets nationwide and dispatches generation to load on an hourly basis. Using plant-by-plant generation results and reported data on unit-specific emis- sions, it calculates the total emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2. From the data in Exhibit 14 we can see that in 2001 western power plants emitted an estimated 1.05 million tons of NOx and 1.28 million tons of SO2. For the year 2010 we find that under our business-as-usual base case scenario, pollutant levels will decrease by about 15% for both NOx and SO2—despite the fact that power generation will increase by 23% over the same time period (see Exhibit 5). By 2010 western energy demand is expected to grow from 1,092,160 GWh in 2001 to 1,333,945 GWh. The main reason for this trend is the replacement of older, less efficient generation by modern gas-fired power plants, as well as the installation of scrubbers, or the switching to lower sulfur coals, at coal-fired power plants in order to be compliant with regional haze reduction targets under the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP), especially in national parks (Class 1 areas). In addition, economic displacement of Gulf lignite in Texas with Powder River Basin coal may result in even lower emissions than forecast here. Base Case Forecast In our forecast, we have assumed a business-as-usual scenario, which is our base case. Under this scenario, we include all announced power plant additions and retirements that we believe are likely to occur, retirements of uneconomical units based on model results, as well as auto- matic additions of new capacity by plant type based on load shape, capital cost, and forecast fuel prices. Therefore, our base case scenario pictures an energy future that continues to rely heavily on natural gas and coal. We believe that this business-as-usual scenario provides a good reference point. 30PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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