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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Nuclear, hydro, wind and solar power produce no air pollution and geothermal generation pro- duces very little. Replacing coal-fired power plants with gas-fired generation can already provide a great deal of emission reductions. In our base case we assume that such a displacement of coal with natural gas and the construction of more efficient coal plants will reduce western NOx and SO2 by about 15% over the next decade. However, this trend would still result in a net increase of CO2 emissions by 13.4% (See Exhibit 15). Only if gas-fired combined cycle plants were to displace even greater amounts of coal-fired power generation in the West, as forecast by our business-as-usual base case, could western power plants on their own meet the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. Today, western coal plants emit up to three times the carbon of a new combined cycle plant, and replacing 1 MW of coal with 1 MW of combined cycle would reduce carbon emissions by about one-third (assuming the two plants would operate at the same capacity factor). However, it is not certain that enough natural gas could be produced at a price competitive with coal to make such a displacement scenario possible. In addition, with increasing demand for natural gas by power generators, gas prices will likely become more volatile, thus resulting in unstable power prices. This market instability may tilt the scale more toward renewables, which provide a hedge against volatile fuel prices. The California energy crisis has shown the value of such hedges, where, for example, the parabolic trough solar plants in the Mojave Desert continued solar electric generation at the contracted, fixed cost despite the high natural gas prices in California at the time. Nuclear and renewables emit neither CO2 nor other air or water pollutants. As discussed else- where, new capacity from nuclear and hydro is unlikely in the current environment. Solar, wind, and geothermal are therefore the only realistic alternatives for zero-emissions technologies.17 Given the easy access to solar and wind, and the vast amounts of resources, these types of renewable generation emerge as the West’s best alternative to drastically reduce air pollution and, in particular, CO2. While natural gas can also make a great contribution in this regard, renewables may be preferred toward the end of the decade. Given the current boom in natural Exhibit 15: Air Emissions of Major Pollutants by Generating Technology per MWh Using Best Available Control Technology (BACT) Plant Type Coal Combined Cycle Gas Boiler Combustion Turbine Solar, Wind, Hydro, and Nuclear Heat Rate (HHV) Btu/kWh 9,500 7,100 10,500 11,500 None NOx Lbs/MWh 1.52 0.21 0.84 0.58 None SO2 (1) Lbs/MWh 1.62 0.01 0.01 0.01 None CO2 Lbs/MWh 1,930 830 1,230 1,345 None Particulates Lbs/MWh 0.01 – – – None SOURCE: U.S. Department of Energy, Market-Based Advanced Coal Power Systems, May 1999, and RDI Consulting analysis. Biomass not included in this table due to dif- ficulties in finding reliable information. (1) Based on 2000 average sulfur content in western coal plants of 1.3 lbs/mmBtu. 32PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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