Solar Fuel From The Sky

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Solar Fuel From The Sky ( solar-fuel-from-the-sky )

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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY ture). The changes might be dramatic, in particular, because they would occur over a time scale that is too fast for either humans or nature to adapt. Therefore, if research in the next years con- firms global climate change from CO2 emissions, then the U.S. power industry, which currently produces 40% of U.S. CO2 emissions, may experience pressure to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, and, in particular, coal. It has been argued that the U.S. could also use carbon “sinks” to, at least in part, meet its emis- sion reduction goals. Carbon sinks are ecosystems that naturally sequester certain amounts of carbon, for example, a newly planted forest, in the U.S. or elsewhere. In 1999, the United States released about 5.6 billion tons of CO2 into the air, of which 1.7 billion came from coal-fired power plants.18 According to an article in The New York Times, in order to offset all of its domestic carbon emissions, the U.S. would have to plant a forest the size of the surface area of Jupiter, which has a surface area 120 times that of Earth.19 Certainly, even under the current draft of the Kyoto Protocol, not all CO2 emissions have to be curtailed; rather, the U.S. emissions level is targeted to be reduced to 7% below its level in 1990 by 2010. In addition, RDI Consulting calculated the area of a forest needed to sequester all U.S. carbon emissions “only” to be the size of Earth.20 Despite the differing estimates, the message is the same: Using carbon sinks alone is unlikely enough to stem potential global warming. Today, coal-fired generation contributes about 52% of all electricity produced in the U.S. and 44% of the electricity in the West. Despite uncertain profit margins, criticism from environmental groups for its mining practices, significant problems related to air emissions from coal-fired power plants, and a stagnation of its business in the current natural gas-fired generation boom, the coal industry is charged with keeping our economy humming. No other industry would be hit harder by a demand for reduction in CO2 emissions than the coal industry. Its uneasiness in the face of the Kyoto Protocol is more than understandable. Nevertheless, if the link between CO2 and climate change is further corroborated, the U.S. may need to drastically reduce carbon emissions. While carbon mitigation techniques such as sequestration of CO2 are mentioned as possible solutions, these are more long-term remedies. At this point, it is also not clear whether planting trees or sequestering carbon dioxide in geologi- cal formations is either significant or practical. In Exhibit 17 we show the CO2 emissions from western power plants in 2001, 2005, and 2010. Under RDI Consulting’s base case scenario (under which the future mix of generating sources occurs according to the economics of the plant type, which is dictated by the regional fuel price, the cost of the technology, current emis- sions cost, and regional electric market dynamics) carbon emissions increase by 13% from 658 million tons in 2001 to 746 million tons in 2010. By 2010, this increase would cause western states to miss the goals of the Kyto Protocol by an estimated 231 million tons. If western power plants were voluntarily to meet these emissions 35

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