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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY reductions on their own, RDI Consulting estimates that emissions would have to be reduced to about 515 million tons in order to be in compliance. However, under our business-as-usual sce- nario, CO2 emissions actually increase by 88 million tons. In 2001, only 1.5% of western energy was produced with non-hydro renewable energy. Most of this renewable energy is geothermal and wind—including 1,229 MW of new wind capacity that came on-line that year. In order to see what impact a rapid renewable energy deployment could do to curb carbon emissions, RDI Consulting hypothesized that, by 2005, 5% of electricity was generated from non-hydro renewables, and 10% in 2010. We assumed that hydro continued to produce about 199,400 GWh, the level of generation at 2001 installed hydro capacity and nor- mal hydro conditions. We further assumed that the capacity factor of the new non-renewable energy source was about 33%, which is a reasonable value when both wind and solar are aver- aged together. Under these assumptions, we find that, by 2005, 16,202 MW of new renewable capacity would have to be built, increasing to 40,551 MW by 2010. While such renewable capacity additions are not impossible, they would require a rapid renewable energy deployment. In order to see the impact of these renewables on carbon emissions, we assumed for each GWh of electricity 1,000 tons of CO2 would be saved by avoiding generation of 1 GWh from coal. (However, if those renewables were to displace energy from natural gas, the CO2 emissions reductions would only be about half as big.) By 2010 this rapid renewable energy deployment of wind and solar, the most abundant western renewable energy resources, would more than com- pensate for the expected growth in emissions by 88 million tons under our business-as-usual base case scenario. Nevertheless, in 2010, western states would still emit 113.6 million tons more CO2 from their power plants than targeted by the Kyoto Protocol. Exhibit 17: Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Western Power Plants, 2000-2010 Scenario Required Change under Kyoto Rapid Renewables Deployment Saved CO2 (3) CO2 short of Kyoto Percent Million Tons New Capacity (MW) (2) Million Tons -143 N/A (4) -143 Year Kyoto Target (1) 2001 2005 -168 16,202 43.3 -124.6 2010 Base case Forecast CO2 (Million Tons) Change over 2001 Million Tons 515 658 N/A N/A 683 25 3.80% 746 88 13.40% -231 Non-hydro Renewables as % of Electric Energy 1.50% 1,229 5% 10% 40,551 117.2 -113.6 SOURCE: RDI Consulting (1) Assumes that electric generation independently meets the required percentage reductions of carbon dioxide proposed by the Kyoto Protocol. (2) Assumes a capacity factor of 33%. (3) Assumes CO2 savings of 1,000 tons/GWh. (4) Included in base case forecast for 2001. 36PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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