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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY The only solutions for western states to be in compliance under this “what-if” scenario, where power plants try meet the Kyoto goals independently, would be to either further deploy renew- ables, reduce emissions through greater use of natural gas or nuclear, sequester carbon under- ground or in new forests, or trade emissions with other states or countries. Emissions trading would seek to lower global CO2 emissions where this can be done most cost- effectively. For example, it may be cheaper to retire an inefficient steam plant in another state or country and to buy emissions credits from a new, highly efficient power plant, which produces significantly lower CO2 emissions and which is built to replace the retiring capacity, instead of trying to lower carbon emissions from western plants. Because carbon emissions are a global rather than a local problem, this approach produces the same result. The U.S. under the Clinton administration had sought such a trade program as a condition of signing the Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, in the summer of 2001, the protocol was amended to allow for some form of emissions trading. The other alternatives to lowering CO2 emissions from power plants and still meeting the goals of the Kyoto Protocol would be for the West to reduce its electricity use or to seek offsets in other areas of energy consumption. The magnitude of the required energy savings would be sig- nificant, but consumers may now be willing to undertake such energy conservation efforts based on their experiences with the California energy crisis. The problem with seeking offsets in other areas of western energy consumption is that other large sources of CO2, will have an even hard- er time lowering their emissions. For example, for transportation, no real alternative to gasoline exists at this point. Europe and Japan have decided to go forward with an amended version of the Kyoto Protocol. The U.S., which produces a quarter of the world’s manmade output of greenhouse gases, includ- ing CO2, has decided to stand outside the agreement.21 This has created considerable uncer- tainty for the U.S. industry and coal generators, which must factor possible CO2 regulations into their business and generation planning decisions. Carbon sequestration in geological formation appears to be an interesting idea, but it remains to be seen how practical and how expensive it is. It is unproven and may only be possible in certain situations. Sole reliance on carbon “sinks” seems a rather outlandish idea given the fact that the U.S. alone would have to plant a forest of planetary proportions. The West, in particular, would not even have the water that such forests would require. With fusion only a distant possibility and fission a political hot potato with questionable economics for new plants, renewable energy is the only alternative for western states to aim for the targets of the Kyoto Protocol in the power generation arena. While natural gas-fired power plants could replace coal-fired generation and thus greatly reduce carbon emissions, there are probably not adequate reserves of economically competitive natural gas to satisfy the power generation requirements. 37PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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