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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY A cursory review of Exhibit 18 shows why CSP is the leading technology. The combination of low capital costs and high efficiencies results in the lowest cost of power.1 The capital and power cost numbers in Exhibit 18 are based on annual installation levels of about 100 MW for each technology and current technology and production processes. All CSP technologies, and in par- ticular parabolic trough, power tower, and dish Stirling, have great promise for significant cost reductions. This could result in a much lower cost than shown in Exhibit 18, if these technolo- gies are more widely adopted. Of all CSP technologies, parabolic trough, power towers, and dish Stirling are the most ready to bring on-line large amounts of capacity in the Southwest. The penetration potential of CPV is not as clear at this point, because more research and development is required before it is possible to determine the technology’s cost curve and, hence, market potential. Parabolic trough and dish Stirling are the CSP technologies with the largest number of system hours. Existing parabolic trough plants have decades of operational history, and one dish Stirling system has been operating, albeit with interruptions, for the last 17 years. Two power tower sys- tems (Solar One and Two) operated as demonstration projects in the 1980s and 1990s, but are now decommissioned. During the demonstration project, the units operated for about 2,000 hours. System experience with CPV is still low compared to dish Stirling, which targets a similar niche in the power market, but a few CPV systems are currently in operation, mainly by Arizona Public Service, and are accumulating more system hours. In this study, we will use the cost and performance of parabolic trough and dish Stirling as proxy technologies to demonstrate the contribution that CSP could make to western energy and to evaluate the economics surrounding CSP. Parabolic troughs and dish Stirling technologies are similar, respectively, to power towers and CPV. Much of the analysis performed specifically for parabolic troughs and dish Stirling can be applied to power towers and CPV. Because of similar performance characteristics and economies of scale, generally power towers compete with par- abolic troughs, and CPV is a competitor with dish Stirling. The choice of parabolic troughs and dish Stirling as proxy technologies was influenced by the fact that these technologies have longer track records and are better known than power towers and CPV, respectively. In 2001, the developers of parabolic trough and dish Stirling plants were inter- ested in developing domestic projects and were in negotiation with power purchasers in the Southwest to build new capacity. No power tower project was being pursued in the U.S, but a consortium of companies, including those involved in the Solar Two power tower project, is pursu- ing a project in Spain (Solar Tres) and is interested in bringing the technology to the U.S. market. The cost and performance of all solar-generating technologies are discussed in detail in the chap- ter, “A Primer on Solar Generating Technologies,” which also provides a detailed discussion of the cost data summarized in Exhibit 18. Power towers show the lowest solar power cost, but capital 42PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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