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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY and O&M cost assumptions used in Exhibit 18 rely on industry information. While these figures represent good faith estimates, the industry admits great uncertainty in providing cost information on its own technologies until new projects are built. The cost and performance of parabolic trough plants and dish Stirling systems are further discussed in detail in the section, “Capital and Production Costs of Solar Power.” In this section we will mark the technology to market; that is, we determine how well these plants would do in a competitive power market today, using some of the most advanced modeling tools in the industry. This mark-to-market analysis allows valuing the power delivered by CSP technologies for a power aggregator or utility. Next, leading to the economic analysis is a thorough discussion of the western solar generating potential and how the profiles of solar radiation, regional load shapes, and the intermittence of sunshine all affect the ability to provide electricity from solar power. These sections are crucial for understanding the potential of solar power for western energy supply and, in our view, con- tain some of the most interesting findings of our study. The Solar Generating Potential In order to assess the role that solar power can play in western energy supply, it is important to know how much solar resource is available. Why invest time and effort in a renewable energy technology if it can only provide a small fraction of our energy needs? Geothermal power plants are an important source of renewable energy, but the potential exists in only a few places. So, how much solar energy falls on a patch of western land, and is there enough land for large-scale solar generation? The answer to this last question is: Yes. Solar energy is an abundant and underutilized energy source in the West. Solar resources are optimal in the Desert Southwest and—given the geo- graphic and climatic conditions—potentially the best in the world. Not only are there hundreds of square miles that could be used for solar generation, this land is also close to some major west- ern metropolitan areas where large quantities of electricity are consumed. Our analysis shows that western solar energy resources are commensurate with current electricity demand in the West. Amount of Power Contained in Solar Radiation The intensity of solar radiation outside the atmosphere is about 1,300 watts per square meter (W/m2). When sunlight passes through the Earth’s atmosphere, a portion is scattered or absorbed—by haze, particles, or clouds. On a clear day in the Desert Southwest about 80% to 90% of the solar radiation entering the atmosphere reaches the ground. The U.S. has some of the best solar resources in the world, and the intensity of solar radiation at ground level in areas such as Las Vegas, Nevada, can reach values as high as 1,100 W/m2. Even on a clear day, sunshine is composed of diffuse (scattered) light and rays that come undis- turbed from the sun (direct normal radiation). Exhibit 19 illustrates the definitions of diffuse, 43PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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