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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Accounting for Cloud Cover In top solar resource areas, cloud cover is relatively rare, especially in the summer, but it is pos- sible to forecast cloud formation. According to the operators of the parabolic trough solar plants near Kramer Junction, next-hour sunshine can be forecast with near certainty. While solar power is an intermittent resource, its availability is much more predictable than wind power. Still, research in Denmark on wind has shown that electric supply remains reliable even at a 10% pen- etration of wind due to the geographic diversity of the turbines. The very good predictability of solar generation on an hour-ahead, or even day-ahead basis, further simplifies the task of man- aging this intermittent resource.10 Despite this ability to forecast cloud formation, clouds can still be trouble for the operation of solar plants. For example, this is the case, when clouds move as bands or are highly scattered and the large solar field receives sun in spotty and interruptible ways—and if such a weather pat- tern persists for more than a few hours. This is because, while the overall reduction in average solar radiation may not be that high, the frequently changing heat production of the solar field could make operation of the plant difficult. Unless a parabolic trough or power tower plant has energy in heat storage or hybridization with natural gas is used, the output of the plant could be below expected levels. Because dish Stirling units can ramp to full power within seconds after being hit by the sun, and because of their small size—the entire dish Stirling system is either in the shade or in the sun—this average output of a dish Stirling unit tracks average radiation levels very well. At the same time, of course, dish Stirling11 units are intermittent sources of electricity and cannot levelize short periods of shading like power towers or parabolic trough plants can. Still, on occasion a solar power plant may fail to deliver energy into the market. In our economic analysis we have included intermittence cost and we will present our methodology for calculating this cost in the section, “Putting a Cost on Intermittence.” So, how big is the impact of weather on solar generation? In order to answer this question, we analyzed 30 years of hourly solar radiation for premium and excellent solar resource areas in the Desert Southwest. In Exhibit 28 we show the influence of weather on solar radiation in Daggett, California, a premium solar area, and Phoenix, Arizona, which has excellent solar resources. The solar radiation data in these areas were already adjusted for the changing hours of daylight with the season and only show the effects of clouds and haze. In both areas, the average solar radiation is highest in June than for any other month of the year.12 This is the time when a solar plant would operate on average at 100% of its rating. The black stock-chart type bars in Exhibit 28 show that during certain years the solar radiation dur- ing that month was more or less than the average. The length of the bar represents the stan- dard deviation around the average. For example, the graphs show that in both areas solar gener- ation during June may vary from 95% to 105% of the average from one year to another. 58PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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