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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY First, we created an hourly plant dispatch model, which simulates the operation of a solar power plant in the southwestern wholesale market and determines the revenues the plant would receive. For this we created an “artificial” sun that simulates hourly sunshine in the West. In addi- tion, we developed hourly power price streams with forecast power prices and the volatility observed in the southwestern markets prior to the California energy crisis. Both simulations were conducted for 100 years. Next, in order to estimate the intermittence cost, we took a market-based approach. We assumed that the market will operate as a one-hour-ahead market and that the penalty for not delivering 1 MWh of power is equal to the hourly market price of power. That is, if a solar power plant fails to deliver the MWh to which it is committed, it will have to buy replacement power at market price. Fossil fuel-fired power plants are significant sources of air pollution. These emissions can be associated with significant health problems and can be harmful to forests, water bodies, and crops. Except in a few circumstances and only to a limited degree, the cost of electricity from conventional sources does not account for these external costs.14 Instead of trying to estimate external costs, we use the premium that society attaches to renewable energy as a proxy for the external costs of other forms of energy. For example, the premium for renewable energy is the sum of tax credits and green energy premiums (the amount of money consumers are willing to pay for green power above their usual electricity bills). This premium results in a revenue increase to the utility and a cost reduction to the developer for renewables. In estimating today’s cost of power from solar technology, we took the following approach. We defined today’s cost as the cost of building and operating a solar power plant with current tech- nology and where the project is not one-of-a-kind. At the same time, we assumed the industry would not yet take advantage of cost reductions through investments in production capacity, but would instead satisfy its equipment needs through outsourcing. Such a situation would be one where short-term financial incentives allowed the development of hundreds of megawatts of solar capacity, while a long-term sustainable market for solar power was not in place.15 For esti- mating today’s cost we did, however, take into account discounts from volume purchases in the outsourcing. Specifically, we assumed that about 250 MW of parabolic trough or power tower mirrors and about 100 MW of dish Stirling systems were ordered annually. We are aware that the 100 MW annual production volumes for dish Stirling are not likely with the start of incentives such as tax credits or buydowns, which could provide a market for this and other CSP technologies, because dish Stirling technology may require a slower ramp-up to over- come concerns over technology risk. However, the cost of dishes greatly depends on volume— to a much greater degree than parabolic trough or power tower technology. Therefore, in order to better compare the cost of the technologies, we assumed the dish Stirling systems proved reliable and could deploy large amounts of capacity. 62PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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