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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY We have done this mark-to-market analysis for four proxy plants: two differently sized dish Stirling plants and two parabolic trough plants, one with heat storage and the other with fossil fuel hybridization. All plants were located in the Mojave Desert and received the forecast whole- sale power price in the southwestern U.S. The key results of this analysis for parabolic troughs can be applied to power towers, while the results for dish Stirling systems can be used to under- stand the economics of CPV, because of the similarities of the respective technologies. Such a detailed analysis of the other two CSP technologies, especially power towers, would have been desirable as well, but was outside the scope of this study. In the next sections, we will describe our methodology and the results of our financial analysis in detail. Before we begin our discussion, however, we want to note that no correlation apparently exists between the instantaneous production of energy from solar power and the price of power in the Southwest. This observation is important for understanding the role solar power can play in western power markets. Solar Energy Production and Electricity Prices In a competitive energy market, the price of power depends on the demand and supply balance. During summer peak demand, the price for power is usually significantly higher than during the lowest demand of the year. Therefore, generating technologies that produce power primarily or solely during the periods of peak prices, and especially during times of price spikes, can pro- duce power that is more expensive than cycling or baseload power plants. This is why a simple cycle combustion turbine is economic to install despite its high variable production cost, because its sole purpose is to run during peak demand when prices are high. One of the positive features of solar power is that its output increases during the summer, when regionally electricity is needed the most, and that it’s available during the day, when demand is higher than at night. However, on average, daily solar production peaks a few hours before the demand reaches its maximum (see Exhibits 26 and 27, in section, “Heat Storage”). Further, dur- ing the year, southwestern monthly load peaks in August, while solar energy reaches its highest level in June, two months earlier (see Exhibit 29, in section, “Seasonality”). Peak energy prices occur during the times of highest demand. Our discussion suggests that— on average—maximum output from solar power plants with no heat storage or fossil fuel hybridization is shifted from the daily peak demand by a few hours (depending on the season and location) each day and from the annual peak by about two months. This means that solar power plants do not operate like a “peaking” plant, which is understood to (primarily) dispatch during hours of peak demand. To examine the issue further, we looked at the correlation between hourly power prices and solar radiation in the Desert Southwest. The only year for which such real-time data were avail- 63PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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