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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Putting a Cost on Intermittence The wind power industry is engaged in a discussion with regulators and utilities about the cost of intermittence. What is the additional cost incurred by purchasing energy from intermittent energy sources? For example, wind cannot produce power on demand—that is, be “dispatched”— unless the wind happens to blow. And what is the cost of the capacity necessary to back up intermittent generation? In order to estimate the cost of intermittence associated with solar plants, we took a market- based approach. In our dispatch model we assumed a one-hour-ahead energy market. Next, we assessed no penalty for over-generation from renewables, but if a generator fails to deliver the capacity committed in the hour-ahead market, the generator must buy replacement power at the current hourly wholesale price. Additional penalties may be imposed on the plant for failure to deliver, such as a “capacity” penalty, but the level of such penalties and whether such penalties would extend to renewables is not clear and we thus assumed that the purchase of replacement power was the only intermittence cost. Based on our research, next-hour sunshine in premium solar energy resource areas can be pre- dicted well (even the next-day forecast tends to be reliable). We believe that the following assumptions about the ability to forecast solar radiation in the next hour is representative of the actual forecast abilities in premium solar resource areas: The probability is 95% that the output in the next hour will be equal or larger than expected; 2% that the output will be 20% lower; 2% that it will be half; and 1% of the time the plant fails to deliver at all. Using these assumptions, and the above market-based approach, we calculated the intermittence cost for dish Stirling systems. The two parabolic trough plants have either four-hour heat storage or fossil fuel hybridization, and thus intermittence in a one-hour-ahead model is not an issue. Capital and Production Costs of Solar Power RDI Consulting relied on company information and data from NREL as well as discussions with relevant parties for its estimates of the capital and production costs of solar generating tech- nologies. We believe that the cost estimates given in this report for dish Stirling, parabolic trough, and power towers are reasonable, but the actual cost of construction and operation of new solar power plants may be different. Today’s capital and production costs of dish Stirling and parabolic trough are based on company information, provided by Stirling Energy Systems (SES), and NREL (shown in Exhibit 40). The actual cost of new solar power plants may be different than the good-faith estimates in Exhibit 31 for the following reasons: 65PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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