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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Exhibit 31: Today’s Capital and Production Costs of Dish Stirling, Parabolic Trough, and Power Tower Dish Stirling (1) 2.5 MW/100 MW Parabolic Trough100 MW Power Tower 100 MW Capital Cost Basic Plant $/kW 2,650 1,956 2,065 Heat Storage $/kWh N/A 103 27 Additional Solar Field $/kW N/A 510 540 Fossil Fuel Hybridization $/kW Not commercial 196 196 Fossil Heat Rate (HHV) (2) TBD 10,800 10,000 Fixed O&M $/kW-year 40/2.5 (1) 37 30 Variable non-fuel O&M $/MWh Basic 16.8/15 (1) 2 2 Heat Storage N/A – (3) – (3) Fossil Fuel Hybridization TBD – (3) – (3) While the O&M values for parabolic trough plants are based on over 10 years of operating expe- rience at the SEGS solar power plants (see “The 354-MW SEGS Power Plants”), no new parabol- ic trough plant has been built in over a decade. On the other hand, the ongoing purchases of replacement mirrors at SEGS provide a good idea of the capital cost of the collector field. And there are few questions about the cost of the steam-plant portion, which is no different from any other conventional steam unit. For both parabolic trough and power towers, there is uncertainty with regard to the capital cost of molten-salt heat storage, which has been used in only one power tower demonstration project. Also, the cost estimates of power towers are based only on the relatively small Solar One and Solar Two power tower units and the current development activities on Solar Tres in Spain. Until a new power tower project the size of 100 MW is built and operated, both capital and operating costs for power towers remain somewhat uncertain. Our cost estimates for dish Stirling reflect uncertainties over capital and O&M costs—possibly in both directions—because only a few demonstration units were built by SES, SAIC/STM Power, and others. The SES systems, on which our cost assumptions are based, are over a decade old. SES has conducted significant research on its systems and has received quotes from third- party manufacturers for building new units. The critical component of the dish Stirling system is the Stirling engine. This engine can be pro- duced by the automotive industry, taking advantage of that industry’s enormous economies of scale and technical sophistication. Therefore, it appears that projected cost estimates are possi- ble. Yet, there remains some concern as to whether new motors, at the cost quoted by the auto- motive industry, will be as reliable as previous ones. This question cannot be answered until new units are built. SOURCE: Stirling Energy Systems and National Renewable Energy Laboratory NOTE: Based on current technology, standard plant size, assumed production capacity, and company information. (1) Based on 2.5-MW plant size (100 units) for “distributed” generation and 100-MW plant size (4,000 units) for a central power station. (2) Based on natural gas. (3) Negligible compared to basic variable non-fuel O&M. 66PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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