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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Another company that is actively engaged in developing dish Stirling units is Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) and STM Power. SAIC/STM Power developed its own dish Stirling sys- tem using an entirely different engine, built by STM Power, and collector system than SES. These systems are much younger than the dish Stirling units that SES acquired from Southern California Edison (SCE) (and which were originally built by McDonnell Douglas). Because SAIC/STM Power has less experience with its units than SES, we relied on cost information from SES and used it as a proxy for all dish Stirling systems. However, SES’ cost estimates are commensurate with that of other Stirling engine and concentrating dish manufacturers. We make no long-term forecast for the cost of solar power plants. However, we point to the suc- cess of wind power as an example of the enormous cost reductions possible when a technology moves from an experimental and demonstration phase into commercialization. The levelized cost of wind power has come down by 70% in the last 15 years and is now approaching $40/MWh (4 cents/kWh). Cost continues to decline and is likely to accelerate given the current growth in wind project development (see section, “Wind”). Every new technology requires an incubation period. During this time the technology matures and the cost declines. There is no reason to believe that thermal CSP technologies, including parabolic trough, power towers, and dish Stirling, will be any different, especially because of the similarity in engineering between wind and thermal solar power plants. Just like wind power, ther- mal CSP technologies use ordinary technology in an extraordinary way. Cost reductions are expected to come overwhelmingly from learning, volume production and economies of scale rather than engineering advances. Cost reductions in thermal solar power plant equipment appear likely and, with all caveats, the numbers presented in Exhibit 31 are a reasonable place to start. Future responses to requests for proposals will show the actual costs. All estimates in Exhibit 31 represent incremental capital costs. For example, a basic parabolic trough plant with a solar field, whose peak thermal output is sized to match the capacity of the steam turbine, costs 1,956 $/kWh. Additions to the solar field would increase the cost $510 per kilowatt. One hour of full load energy storage for a 100-MW plant would add 1 hour x 100 MW x 103 $/kWh = $10.3 million to the project cost. Revenues and Costs of Thermal Solar Power Plants In the previous sections we provided information on solar radiation, electric load shapes, solar generating technologies, and cost. This should help make clear the issues that determine the reliability and cost of electricity generated from solar power. In this section we will take the analysis a step further and estimate the revenues of four proxy solar power plants (two dish 67PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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