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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Stirling systems and two parabolic trough) by simulating these plants in the energy market. To do this, we created hourly electricity and natural gas prices and an hourly sunshine model. In our analysis we “dispatch” these four proxy solar plants against the hourly price and solar data in order to determine their capacity factors, revenues, and costs. This allows us to see how well these plants would do in a competitive market today; that is, we mark the plants to market. The dispatch model takes into consideration the engineering parameters of the solar technolo- gies and the availability of sunshine. The plants are then operated to maximize their revenues in the energy market. Each plant is dispatched against 100 different annual price and solar data sets. We used proprietary computer models to develop these data sets based on historical price volatilities and variations in sunshine. The mean values of the price data are equal to 2002 fore- cast prices provided by RDI Consulting’s forecasting group. By operating the plants for 100 years, this approach allows us to see the variation in annual revenues that a solar plant could experience in an energy market due to price volatility and variations in sunshine. The wholesale price of power is RDI Consulting’s forecast price in the Southwest for the year16 2002, which we chose because we expect that by that time electricity prices should return to normal and 2002 would be the earliest on-line date for a solar power plant. By creating volatility, the price streams differ greatly in their exact shape from year to year, while their statistical char- acteristics, such as averages and standard deviations, remain the same. The Solar Power Plant Proxies In Exhibit 32 we show the cost and performance assumptions of four dish Stirling and parabolic trough proxy solar power plants. The cost data are based on Exhibit 31 and the chapter, “A Primer on Solar Generating Technologies.” Exhibit 32: Performance and Cost Assumptions of Proxy Solar Power Plants Electric Capacity (MW) Solar to Electric Capacity Ratio Off-sun Generation "Distributed" Dish Stirling 2.5 MW (100 units) 1 None 100-MW Dish Stirling 100 MW (4,000 units) 1 None Proxy Technology Parabolic Trough w/ Heat Storage 100 MW 1.8 4 hours Parabolic Trough w/ Fossil Hybrid 100 MW 1.25 24 hours Cost Capital Cost ($/kW) Fixed Cost ($/kW-year) Non-fuel Variable O&M ($/MWh) Fuel Cost ($/mmBtu) (1) Fossil Heat Rate (HHV) (Btu/KWh) Project Life 2,650 40 16.8 N/A N/A 30 years 2,650 2.5 15 N/A N/A 30 years 2,877 37 2 N/A N/A 30 years 2,152 33 2 3.87 10,800 30 years SOURCE: Stirling Energy Systems and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) NOTE: For details see Exhibit 40. (1) Annual average gas price, please see text for details. 68PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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