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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Two proxy plants are dish Stirling plants. One is a “distributed” plant of 2.5 MW composed of 100 25-kW units, and the other is a 100-MW plant using 4,000 units. Capital cost assumptions on a $/kW basis are the same for both, based on a total unit manufacturing of 4,000 units per year. However, the economies of scale of a large plant allow for lower O&M costs. Considering a 100- MW dish Stirling plant allows us to compare on equal footing dish Stirling to parabolic trough plants with a unit size of 100 MW. The reason for including distributed dish Stirling systems is because we believe this is a niche market for dish Stirling (and concentrating PV), as described later. The two 100-MW parabolic trough plants include one that uses molten-salt heat storage and can operate four hours at full load during cloud cover or after dark. The solar field of this plant is oversized by 80% and thus allows it to store energy while the plant could still operate at full capacity. It also allows for operation at full capacity when solar radiation would not be high enough otherwise. The solar-to-electricity ratio at this unit is therefore 1.8 (180 MW solar/100 MW electric = 1.8). Naturally, the electric output of this plant, and hence its capacity factor, is higher than it would be without oversizing the solar field and including thermal storage. Of course, this 100-MW plant would also occupy about twice the area of a 100-MW dish Stirling plant. The optimal heat storage and solar-to-electricity configuration were determined by eco- nomic optimization done by NREL based on power prices provided by RDI Consulting. The second parabolic trough plant is a fossil fuel hybrid. This means that a fossil fuel-fired boiler can produce heat for the steam cycle during cloud cover or at night. Of course, power from this off-sun generation will produce air emissions. Neither the efficiency nor the emissions control on such a boil- er unit compares favorably to a combined cycle natural gas-fired plant. In addition, power generated in hybridization mode will not receive any production tax credits or green energy premiums. For more details on the technology and performance of dish Stirling or parabolic trough plants, please refer to the section, “Thermal Solar Power.” Revenues and Production Cost The true cost of power is determined not only by its production cost, but also by the value that the power has in the market. A perfect example of this is the power generated by a simple cycle combustion turbine. Its power cost can be two to three times more than the average price of power in the wholesale market, but because it only operates when prices spike—and such price spikes occur with sufficient frequency—it still produces enough revenue to be economic. Similarly, the values of the four proxy solar generating technologies in this analysis differ not only by their production costs, but also by how much money they can make in the market. The best way to see this is by estimating the revenues of the four solar proxy plants in the proxy market. For this mark-to-market approach, we created hourly price streams for electricity and natural gas, as well as hourly sunshine data sets. We then operated the plants in this market with the goal of maximizing the plants’ net revenues. 69PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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