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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY For electricity prices, we used SCE hourly market prices forecast for 2002, developed by RDI Consulting’s forecasting group. Because of the strong electrical interconnections between Southern California and the rest of the Southwest, price differentials in the regional wholesale markets are small. It is for this reason that the SCE prices in our model can be used to deter- mine the revenues of a solar power plant in any location in the Southwest. While these forecast prices show hourly variations, they do not display the volatility observed his- torically in the market. In order to introduce volatility we used econometric models to simulate electricity price volatility observed in 1999—prior to the California energy crisis. In this way, 100 annual hourly price data sets were generated, with the same statistical characteristics as the mean of the 2002 forecast prices and the 1999 volatility. In order to account for some of the regulatory intervention in California, we capped hourly prices at 100 $/MWh. This also makes the revenue estimates more conservative. We also created 100 annual hourly natural gas prices in the same way as the electricity prices. Electricity prices and gas prices were correlated. The mean natural gas used in this model is $3.87/mmBtu, and the level of the SCE power prices and the cost of power produced by the parabolic trough hybrid both depend on this forecast natural gas price level. Exhibit 33: Revenues and Production Cost of Proxy Solar Power Plants, Base Case Base Case Electric Capacity (MW) Average Market Price ($/MWh) (2) Average Revenue Received by Plant ($/MWh) (2) Intermittence Cost ($/MWh) (3) Fuel Cost ($/MWh) (4) Non-Fuel O&M (Variable and Fixed) ($/MWh) Solar Fossil Distributed Dish Stirling 2.5 25.2 N/A 41.17 48.50 1.41 N/A 35.96 100-MW Dish Stirling 100 25.2 N/A 41.17 48.50 1.41 N/A 16.20 Proxy Parabolic Trough w/ 4-Hr Storage 100 34.1 N/A 41.17 53.40 N/A N/A 14.65 Parabolic Trough w/ Fossil Hybrid 100 Capacity Factor (1) 25.2 25.4 41.17 56.17 N/A 40.13 9.62 SOURCE: RDI Consulting NOTE: Revenues and costs are expressed in $2001. (1) Net of parasitic loads. (2) Subject to a $100/MWh price cap. (3) Intermittence cost is incurred when the generator cannot dispatch committed capacity into an hour-ahead energy market. (4) For electricity generated with natural gas. NOTE: Because of the varying land requirements and different efficiencies, the capacity factors should not be used to deter- mine which technology produces the most energy per area. For example, the heat-storage parabolic trough plant has a capacity factor of 34.1% with an 80%-oversized solar field that occupies at least 5 acres per MW. The dish Stirling plant has a 25.2% capacity factor but 1 MW of power requires 4 acres. Comparing apples to apples, the same area occupied by a dish Stirling plant produces 60% more solar electricity than a parabolic trough plant. 70PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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