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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Hourly sunshine data were developed from 30 years of solar radiation data in Daggett, California, provided by NREL. One hundred years of hourly sunshine data were generated from historic data by adapting our proprietary volatility simulation models. It was not necessary to correlate solar radiation and power prices on an hourly basis, because no such correlation exists. It is well known in the power industry that load is correlated to temperature and humidity (not sunshine). In addition, research in California has shown that the correlation is strongest with regard to a 3-day moving average, rather than same-day or hourly.17 In Exhibit 33 we show the results of our dispatch analysis, where we dispatched the four proxy plants to optimize net revenues while considering the available sunshine and engineering constraints of the respective technologies. For the dish Stirling plants, we used our in-house dispatch model and entered the engineering parameters such as minimum threshold and part-load efficiency. Because dish Stirling units can ramp up to full load within 20 seconds, ramp rates were ignored. For the parabolic trough plants, RDI used NREL’s parabolic trough dispatch model. This detailed model accounts for heat loss in storage, ramp rates, conversion of two-axis-tracking solar data to single-axis-tracking parabolic collectors, and so forth. We provided NREL with 100 years of solar data and natural gas and power prices. The parabolic trough with heat storage changed its dispatch strategy monthly based on the mean-forecast hourly power price, while the dispatch of the natural gas boiler was determined hourly based on the market price of power and the mar- ginal production cost of the unit. Exhibit 33 shows the dish Stirling plants operated at a capacity factor of 25.2%. The heat-stor- age parabolic trough plant operated at 34.1% capacity factor, because of its 80%-oversized col- lector field. The capacity factor of the solar portion of the generation for the parabolic trough fossil fuel hybrid with a 25% oversized solar field was 25.2%, while the gas-generation account- ed for 25.4%. Over the 100 years, the standard deviation of annual solar energy was ±2%. Such consistency in solar radiation can be found in premium solar resource areas, such as the Mojave Desert. The impacts on revenues of these changes in solar radiation differ with the generation technology and are described below. Exhibit 33 shows that, at an average annual gas price of 3.87 $/mmBtu, the average wholesale price of power during all hours of the year was 41.17 $/MWh (subject to a 100 $/MWh price cap). The average price that dish Stirling was able to capture was 48.5 $/MWh, or 18% more than the average market price. Revenues varied by ±5.8% on an annual basis for the 100 years of dispatch in our model. The parabolic trough plants, which can dispatch power, were able to target hours of higher power prices. This is why the average price received by the parabolic trough with heat storage was 53.40 $/kWh. The plant can hold generation in the morning and can dispatch the stored energy later in the day when prices are higher. The year-to-year changes in solar energy resulted in variations in annual revenues of 6% (standard deviation). 71PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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