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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Exhibit 35: Power Cost of Thermal Solar Power Plant Proxies Power Price $/MWh Base case + + Solar Property Tax Exemption 2 ¢/kWh Green Energy Premium Distributed Dish Stirling 187 174 154 100-MW Dish Stirling 167 154 134 Proxy Parabolic Trough w/ Heat Storage 134 124 104 For dish Stirling, we increased the IRR to 20%, because of the technology risk associated with the Stirling motor. In our view, this IRR is very favorable. Investors could perceive a greater risk for this technology and expect an IRR of 25% percent or more. In reality, for the first dish Stirling plants, performance guarantees may be required in addition to a high IRR to draw investments, because dish Stirling technology is still pre-commercial at this point. However, as described earli- er, our financial analysis assumes installation levels of about 100 MW. We have thus assumed that dish Stirling technology has proven reliable during the initial deployment and that the target IRR here only needs to address long-term risk associated with this new technology With these financial assumptions, and the capital and O&M numbers from Exhibit 32, the power cost of distributed dish Stirling plants with a 2.5-MW plant size is 187 $/MWh, and 167 $/MWh for a 100-MW dish Stirling plant. This compares to the 134 $/MWh of parabolic trough with heat storage and the 93 $/MWh of parabolic trough with fossil fuel hybridization. The high capital cost of dish Stirling and the 25.2% capacity factor are the reasons that, at today’s cost, dish Stirling is the most expensive thermal solar generating technology. Power generated from a parabolic trough plant with fossil fuel hybridization, where about half of the plant’s output is derived from operation on natural gas, had the lowest cost of power of 93 $/MWh and is able to obtain the highest price in the market of 56.17 $/MWh. This hybrid solar generation technology thus provides the greatest value to its owners. However, while the operation on fossil fuels increases overall plant utilization and reduces cost, this energy relies on fossil fuel, produces emissions, and continues to expose the price of power to volatility in natural gas prices. In addition to our base case, in Exhibit 35 we also assess the impacts of a property tax exemp- tion and a 2 ¢/kWh green energy premium on power cost for generation from pure solar. We believe that solar power plants are likely to receive a property tax exemption for the portion of land occupied by the solar collectors. Such property tax exemptions were granted to the SEGS plants in California (see “The Circumstances That Made It Happen”) and we anticipate that other states or counties will provide similar tax incentives. With such a property tax exemption, the power cost is reduced by about 5% to 8% for all solar technologies. Parabolic Trough Fossil Hybrid 93 88 78 73PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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