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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY It is our view that, in the near term, energy from solar power plants could be marketed into green energy programs, which already exist in many parts of the country and are popular. Individual cus- tomers can purchase energy from renewables through a surcharge on their electricity bills. Today, the renewable energy in these programs typically comes from wind. Customers appear willing to pay 2 to 3 cents more for every kWh produced by a renewable, non-polluting energy source. After accounting for the cost of administering these programs, we assumed that solar plants could receive an additional 2 ¢/kWh (20 $/MWh) for their solar-electric energy. We applied this green energy premium over the entire life of the project, which reduces the power cost of all solar tech- nologies by a flat 20 $/MWh, except for the parabolic trough hybrid—where only half the output qualifies as green energy and the cost reduction is thus only half that—10 $/MWh. After applying these incentives, an electric power service provider would view the cost of power for a 100-MW dish Stirling as 134 $/MWh and for the lowest cost parabolic trough plant as 78 $/MWh. However, whether such a green energy premium can be obtained for the entire 15 years of the project life is not certain because wind power is becoming so cost effective that it will soon be able to provide cost-competitive green energy without the premium (and possibly without the pro- duction tax credit [PTC] as well). This puts solar energy at a disadvantage in a green energy portfolio offering. The development of solar power, it appears, will require a mandated percent- age in a green power portfolio or renewable energy standard. Even with a property tax exemption and a 2 ¢/kWh green energy premium, with today’s cost of technology, solar power is still not competitive and would require additional financial incentives to be able to enter the market, including, for example, a PTC. While today’s cost of solar power already makes optimistic assumptions about the level of annual installations, it does not reflect the long-run cost of these technologies. What these technologies will cost, after hundreds or even thousands of megawatts have been installed, is not known at this point. At best, the suc- cessful cost reductions of wind power can be used as an example for possible cost reductions for thermal solar generating technologies. It is difficult to tell if, and how quickly, these cost reductions will be possible. It is our view that performance improvements for dish Stirling and parabolic trough plants are imminent and only moderate research and development is required to achieve them (see sections, “Improvement in Heat Collector Efficiency” and “Dish Stirling to Set New Efficiency Record”). In contrast, efficiency improvements in PV systems are contingent on overcoming significant material sciences chal- lenges. When, if, and at what cost these PV efficiency improvements can be reached is not clear. A significant portion of a parabolic trough plant is the steam plant, and no cost reductions are likely there. But for heat collecting elements, mirrors, truss structures, Stirling motors, and heat storage, cost reductions through volume manufacturing, better design, increases in unit capacity (especially for dish Stirling), and efficiency improvements are likely. Wind power’s cost of power, which has dropped by over 70% over the last 15 years (see Exhibit 44) is still falling and is soon likely to be the lowest of all generating technologies, including conven- 74PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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