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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY tional and renewables. Turbine sizes have increased from 55 kW in 1980 to 2.5 MW today, an increase in unit size of a factor of 45! Therefore, it can be expected that economies of scale in unit size and production volume will result in considerable cost reductions of CSP technologies as well. How Solar Power Compares to Other Generating Technologies Our analysis shows that today’s cost of CSP solar power is between 134 and 187 $/MWh. (The levelized cost of the parabolic trough fossil fuel hybrid is not included, because its cost is deter- mined by a combination of electricity from solar and natural gas.) Decisions on new generation capacity are based on capital and production costs in today’s deregulated electricity market, as has been the case for years in the electric utility industry. At current natural gas prices, the combined cycle plant is the cheapest form of energy. Because it is clean burning and can be built quickly, combined cycle is the power plant of choice for inde- pendent power producers. A natural gas-fired combined cycle plant can deliver energy between 45 and 48 $/MWh at a natural gas price of 3.87 $/mmBtu. Lower natural gas prices—as seen in the fall of 2001—result in a significantly lower cost of power from natural gas-fired power plants. According to research by our coal consulting group, coal-fired generation would only be able to compete with natural gas if gas prices were between 3.50 and 4.00 $/mmBtu and if these new coal plants operated at high capacity factors. Solar power’s direct competitor is wind power. The power cost of wind has fallen from 150 $/MWh in 1984 to about 40 $/MWh in 2000. New “Stateline” wind farms at the Oregon/Washington border that came on-line in December 2001 have an estimated power cost of 40 $/MWh and report a power cost of 25 $/MWh after considering the PTC. Power cost (before the PTC) is expected to drop to as low as 25 $/MWh in the not-too-distant future.18 Other generating technologies include nuclear, geothermal, and biomass. However, we do not believe that any new nuclear power plants will be built due to the high capital cost of the technology (estimat- ed at around 2,000 $/kW) and its associated environmental and political concerns, including spent fuel storage. In addition, nuclear generating technologies, such as the pebble-bed modular reactor (PBMR), that may be acceptable to the public are still in the research and development phase. The cost of geothermal power critically depends on the type of geothermal resource and the cost of drilling. The capital cost of a new geothermal plant is comparable to that of a steam plant plus the additional costs associated with geothermal resource recovery, such as drilling and steam production. According to an analysis performed by NREL, given the right steam resources, geot- hermal would be cost-competitive if it received a PTC commensurate to that awarded to wind.19 The cost of biomass generation depends on the fuel source. It appears that biomass generation may increasingly occur through co-firing in coal plants. Until the cost of fuel for biomass facilities 75PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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