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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY exceed 16%. Inherent losses due to imperfections in the semiconductor and losses related to the semiconductor’s operating temperature are other reasons. Multi-junction PV cells are able to use a wider spectrum of light and thus achieve higher efficien- cies. However, these devices are difficult to manufacture and so expensive that their use is limit- ed to special applications, such as in space or for concentrating PV. Flat panel PV cells, typically made from silicon, are used for small solar power applications, from solar cells on rooftops to modules on traffic signals, and are easily recognized by their bluish panels. In the last five years, the worldwide PV industry has seen growth of about 20% annually and the industry is bullish about the future, especially after the California energy crisis. Domestic ship- ments of PV cells increased 74% during the two-year period ending in 2000, reaching approxi- mately 75 MW of peak power.1 It is doubtful, though, that this kind of growth is sustainable, because the projected penetration levels of distributed generation, such as rooftop PV, appear too optimistic in the face of near-term forecast power prices. The crisis mentality of the California energy crisis is already subsiding, and the public is taking a more strategic approach to meeting western energy supply needs. Flat Panel PV Flat panel PV is the best-known application of PV modules. Many semiconductor materials can produce electricity, but today crystalline and amorphous silicon solar cells are still the only com- mercially available flat panel PV cells. The high production cost of PV cells remains the technolo- gy’s biggest impediment to larger market penetration and large-scale power generation. It is for that reason that PV research in the last decade focused on using alternative semiconductor materials with the goal of achieving lower cost.2 While progress has been made on that front, it is unclear at this point whether and when exotic PV materials will be able to compete with sili- con-based cells. A unique characteristic of flat panel PV is the fact that it can use both diffused and direct normal radiation. This makes PV most attractive in areas with clouds and haze. But overall radiation lev- els are likely to be low in such areas as well, and it is questionable whether utilizing a marginal energy resource makes sense in the first place. Exhibit 37 provides an overview of today’s cost and performance of flat panel PV based on data from an ongoing program to install flat panel PV units in the 70-100 kW range.3 The program has seen module costs drop significantly in recent installations, but the structures necessary to sup- port and connect the modules (balance-of-plant) will continue to comprise a considerable portion of the unit cost. The cost reductions in the program were mainly due to better module-buying strategy rather than module production cost reductions. Even at current annual production vol- umes, which are already approaching 100 MW, the capital cost of flat panel PV is still very high. 80PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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