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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Exhibit 37: Cost and Performance of Flat Panel PV and Concentrating PV Generation Threshold W/m2 Annual Average Efficiency % (4) Annual Avg. Capacity Factor % (4) Equiv. Forced Outage Rate (EFOR) Off-sun Generation Acres/MW Construction Time Capital Cost $/kW Fixed O&M $/kW-year Variable Non-fuel O&M $/MWh Production Capacity for U.S. Market MW/year Cumulative U.S. Sales Largest Unit in the U.S. Flat Panel Photovoltaic (1) ≥50 (3) 11 24 TBD None 3.8 2 weeks 10 10 68 7,500–8,500 140 MW 1MW ≥50 (3) 6 24 TBD None 7.6 4 weeks TBD TBD 6.5 Concentrating PV Unit Size Max Conversion Efficiency % (2) Crystalline Silicon 50x2kW=100kW 13 Amorphous Silicon 50x2kW=100kW 6.5 22–28 kW 18–19 50 TBD 30–32 1–3 None 8–10 3–4 days per unit TBD 10 10 TBD 0.5 MW TBD Demonstrated System Hours Unknown Unknown TBD SOURCE: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Golden, Colorado, private communication; see reference in endnote 3. (1) Commercially available technologies only. Crystalline silicon modules account for about 90% of the flat panel PV market, while amorphous silicon modules account for the remaining 10%. (2) At 1,000 W/m2. (3) Direct normal and diffuse radiation. (4) Premium solar resource area. Flat panel PV tilted to latitude. Concentrating PV PV cells using multiple semiconductor junctions are capable of converting a much larger spectrum of sunlight to electricity than the single-junction cells used in conventional flat panel PV and thus have much higher efficiencies—up to 30%.4 Nevertheless, multi-junction cells can be used more cost effectively if sunlight is concentrated first. The same solar module then produces more power than under normal light conditions. For example, if mirrors or lenses concentrate light on multi-junction cells and increase the sunlight concentration by a factor of 10, that cell will produce about 10 times more power than under direct sunlight. Concentrating PV (CPV) uses mirrors or lenses to focus sunlight on high-efficiency cells. The concentrating optics, as in all concentrating solar power technologies, can only focus direct normal radiation, but not diffuse light. The idea behind CPV is that a few high-performance (and high-cost) PV cells are put to maximum use by concentrating light on them by using either mirrors or lenses. Because the concentrating optics is cheaper than PV modules, this approach is expected to result in an overall lower sys- tem cost. Currently, most CPV systems use lenses to concentrate sunlight and employ two-axis tracking mechanics to follow the sun as it makes its way across the sky. Exhibit 37 provides cost and performance data on CPV. We believe that CPV is a promising form of PV power generation because it uses only one-tenth, or even less, semiconductor material than flat panel PV and it can thus employ more expensive 81PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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