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CONCLUSION A fast and efficient probabilistic method has been demonstrated in predicting probability of failure taking uncertainties in model prediction into account. The probabilistic analysis enables reliability prediction with quantifiable confidence. The sensitivity analysis can be used to manage critical parameters effectively. This in turn allows optimization of design while considering uncertainties to obtain a robust design and proper selection of a proof test level to assure product reliability while minimizing parts rejected at proof screening. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We thank Dr. Zaffir Chaudhry, United Technologies Research Center, for valuable discussion and suggestions. This work was partly funded by Department of Energy. REFERENCES 1. A.G. Evans, “Aspects of the Reliability of Ceramics for Engine Applications”, in Fracture in Ceramic Materials, Ed. A.G. Evans, Noyes Publications, 1984, ISBN 0-8155- 1005-5 2. M.van Roode, M. K. Ferber,. D. W. Richerson, “Ceramic Gas Turbine Design and Test Experience” ASME , New York, 2002, ISBN 0-7918-0181-0 3. N. N. Nemeth., L. M. Powers., L. A. Janosik, and J. P. Gyekenyesi, "Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Monolithic Ceramic Components Using the CARES/LIFE Integrated Design Program," Life Prediction Methodologies and Data for Ceramic Materials, ASTM STP 1201, C. R. Brinkman, and S. F. Duffy, Eds., American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, 1993, pp. 390-408 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. B. Schenk, A. D. Peralta, P. Brehm, and M. N. Menon, “A New Probabilistic Approach for Accurate Fatigue Data Analysis of Ceramic Materials”, J. Eng. for Gas Turbines and Power, 2000, Vol. 122, Issue 4, pp. 637-645 N. N. Nemeth., L. M. Powers., L. A. Janosik, and J. P. Gyekenyesi, "Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/LIFE) Users and Programmers Manual," NASA TM-106316. R. E. Melchers,, STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY: Analysis and Prediction, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1987. S. Reh, T. Palfi, and N. N. Nemeth, “Probabilistic Analysis Techniques Applied to Lifetime reliability Estimation of Ceramics”, JANNAF 39th CS/27th APS/21st PSHS/3rd MSS Joint Subcommittee Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado, Dec. 1-5, 2003. R. H. Carter, and O. M. Jadaan, “The Effects of Incorporating Sysstem Level Variability into the Reliability Analysis for Ceramic Components,” Ceram. Eng. Sci. Proc., Vol. 26, pp 253-260, 2005. O. Ditlevsen, and H. O. Madsen, Structural Reliability Methods, John Wiley, 1996. A. M. Hasofer and N. C. Lind, "Exact and Invariant Second Moment Code Format," Proceedings of ASCE, Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, Vol. 100, No. EM1, pp. 1111-121, 1974. I.R. (Wally) Orisamolu and X. Luo, "Probabilistic Assessment of Corrosion Effects on the Damage Tolerance of Aircraft Structures", AIAA-97-1070-CP, 1997 D. S. Riha, B. H. Thacker, H. R. Millwater, Y.- T.. Wu, and M. P. Enright, “Probabilistic Engineering Analysis using the NESSUS Software” AIAA-2000-1512, 2000. Hexoloy SA SiC technical data from Saint-Gobain Ceramics, http://www.hexoloy.com/hexoloy_data-sheets 131 Copyright © 2007 by ASMEPDF Image | ADVANCED MICROTURBINE SYSTEMS Final Report for Tasks 1 Through 4 and Task 6
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