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Figure 10: Production and Net Trade of Diesel and Gasoline in Latin America 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 Diesel production net trade 800 600 400 200 0 -200 Gasoline production net trade Source: OLADE SIEE database and own calculations (*boe – barrels of oil equivalent) Exposing local populations to the elevated prices of imported oil products carries political risks. Measures to reduce subsidies often result in social unrest. Household income is affected as the costs of cooking, heating, lighting, and transportation increase. There is also an indirect impact as distribution companies pass their increased costs on to consumers, pushing up prices on food and other products. An International Monetary Fund study found that a US$0.25 jump in the price of a liter of oil in Latin America represents a 3.8 percent decline in household income.5 Subsidies have proven an inefficient mechanism for protecting the poor since they allow leakages into wealthier social groups, resulting in higher demand volumes and increasing the burden to governments’ accounts. Latin America’s response to the rising demand for oil products is expansion of its refining capacity. The IEA forecasts a capacity increase of 1 million barrels per day (b/d) in refining products in Latin America over the next five years, mostly in Brazil. Expanded capacity is seen as a way to replace imports and adapt local refineries to changing supplies of crudes, from light to heavy and extra heavy ones. It also allows the supply of refining products made locally to meet stricter environmental standards, including lower sulphur content and no lead. The proposed expansion projects are led by the region’s national oil companies (NOCs), since the refining sector is highly concentrated in state hands in Latin America, directly or in partnership with Chinese and other Asian companies. For example, Chinese National Petroleum Company is collaborating in PDVSA and PetroEcuador’s US$13 billion Pacific Refinery in Ecuador. PDVSA also signed a memorandum of understanding with engineering giant Hyundai for the financing of an engineering, 5 Javier Arze del Granado, David Coady, and Robert Gillingham, “The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of evidence for developing countries” (working paper, International Monetary Fund, September 2010). 10 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 production diesel million boe , net trade (exports - imports) production gasoline million boe*, net trade (exports - imports)PDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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