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slow. As demonstrated by Chevron’s recent oil spill, however, this offers a false sense of security about the environmental impact of large oil projects. Despite what is often perceived as an over-reaction by local authorities and politicians, the Chevron incident exposed the inadequacy of the country’s risk-mitigation strategies when it came to handling massive deep-water oil developments. In the coming decade, Brazil is expected to become the fifth largest economy in the world, surpassing the United Kingdom and France. Its large and diversified manufacturing sector is coping with the rapid currency appreciation that resulted from a massive influx of foreign capital. As oil production and exports increase, Brazil’s currency will be under even greater pressure. Moreover, Petrobras’ impact on the balance of payments and fiscal revenue will continue to increase and, with it, politicians’ desire to influence the energy company’s decisions. Those tensions were already obvious with the 2011-2015 investment plan. The plan proposed a more ambitious investment program for refining infrastructure, anticipating a demand boom in Brazil and seeking to make the country an exporter of “value-added refining products”—even though the market preferred that Petrobras focus on what maximizes value from its exploration and production activities. Brazil is well positioned to continue its successful economic progress, but resource nationalism could carry a notable cost. In fact, Brazil would need to decide if it wants to use oil as a source of rents or as an input to fuel a diversified and growing economy. If the answer is the first one, its conservationist policies may be adequate, but the cost is likely to be a less dynamic economy. If Brazil follows the second option, the best policy would be to further open its hydrocarbon sector to market competition. What happened to Mexico’s oil industry in 1936 is often described as a “classical nationalization” since it led to the expulsion of foreign oil companies and the creation of a national oil company, PEMEX, with a monopoly control over all activities related to the hydrocarbon value chain. The nationalization also became a symbol of national pride, often manipulated by the political elites. Now, after 75 years of government control and a decade of collapsing reserves and production, Mexico is slowly opening its industry. 17PDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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