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The rapid transformation of Colombia’s oil sector has not come without challenges. Transportation capacity is now a major bottleneck, although completion of major pipeline projects should ease that. Indeed, transportation capacity is expected to double from 1.1 million b/d in 2011 to 2.2 million b/d by 2016. In addition to the Caribbean coast, the traditional transport destination, projects are being studied to transport oil to the Pacific coast, with the Asian market as the destination.12 Meanwhile, there has been growing friction between local communities and private operators. The communities expect to benefit from the petroleum boom via employment opportunities and investments in social development, putting pressure on local operators. As exploration expands further into the jungle, there are tensions with indigenous communities opposed to encroachment on their territories; these are also areas where guerrilla presence remains strong. Finally, organized labor wants all oil companies operating in Colombia to offer the same benefits as Ecopetrol. Unlike previous periods when Ecopetrol acted as a local intermediary between foreign operators and local communities, a larger number of companies now operate alone. Many are small companies with limited budgets. Some have been better than others at managing a corporate social responsibility portfolio. Colombia’s objective is to produce 1 million b/d. That important milestone likely can be achieved, but it will be difficult to maintain that level of production long term. Existing oil reserves (2 billion barrels) put Colombia’s reserves-to-production ratio at 5.5 years. With an average of 197 million barrels per year discovered in the last decade, Colombia will have to find much more oil to avoid becoming a net oil importer toward the end of the decade. Unfortunately, the most attractive areas for exploration—the Llanos and the Amazon—carry the greatest social, environmental, and security challenges. ii) The revival of national oil companies During the 1990s, the outlook for NOCs was grim. Years of bloated workforces, combative unions, limited budgets, over taxation, and financially expensive subsidies for petroleum products sold to the domestic market were taking a toll. With low prices and costly exploration, companies were unable to carry new investments. The prevailing belief at the time was that the industry would perform better if governments sold state-owned companies to private owners. The situation reversed a decade later, but the outlook for NOCs in Latin America varies greatly. Two basic models have evolved in the region. One is the political NOC. Its main characteristic is a lack of independence from the central authority. Often used as a tool for political propaganda, it is hindered by objectives unrelated to oil. PDVSA is the best example. 12 Currently oil companies in Putumayo can use the OTA pipeline, which connects the Putumayo fields to the Pacific coast in the department of Narino. 20PDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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