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2 WWAP | Richard Connor and Michael Webber 2.1 External pressures that drive the demand for water Alongside natural forces affecting the world’s water systems, human activities interact and unite to create pressures on water resources, for which there are no substitutes. These pressures are in turn affected by a range of factors such as technological development, political, institutional and financial conditions, and climate change. Global population is projected to reach 9.3 billion in 2050 (UNDESA, 2012). Population growth leads to increased water demand, reflecting growing needs for drinking water, health and sanitation, as well as for energy, food and other goods and services that require water for their production and delivery. Urban areas of the world, particularly those in developing countries, are expected to absorb all this population growth, at the same time drawing in some of the rural population. This intense urbanization will increase demand for water supply, sanitation services and electricity for domestic purposes (Chapter 7). In the absence of sustainable resource management practices for limiting the impact of wasteful consumption and unsustainable resource use, economic development can negatively impact water supplies in terms of quality and quantity. Consumer demand and increasing standards of living are driving increased demand for water, most notably by middle income households in developing and emerging economies through their greater demand for food, energy and other goods, the production of which can require significant quantities of water. Water of acceptable quality and in adequate quantity is needed to meet food production demands. At the same time, food production and supply have a negative impact on the sustainability and quality of water resources. Agriculture is the biggest water user, with irrigation accounting for 70% of global water withdrawals (Chapter 6). With increasing demand for food, competition for water is rising. Specialized crops and livestock products Water: Demands, energy requirements and availability often require more water (and in most cases more energy) to produce and lead to higher levels of water pollution. In the pursuit of food security, technological advancements in the agricultural sector could have significant impacts, both positive and negative, on water demand, supply and quality. Paradoxically, technical progress aimed at improving resource use efficiency may not always serve the intended goal of decreasing resource consumption. In terms of water (as for energy), the implementation of resource- saving technologies may indeed decrease per unit consumption, but the savings are often immediately ‘reinvested’ to increase production and thus do not lead to an overall decrease in demand. This has often been the case for agriculture and industry (Chapter 8). Technology can also create rapid, dramatic and unexpected changes (both in terms of pressures and solutions), making it the most unpredictable driver (WWAP, 2009). This is particularly true in the context of water and energy, where technologies to improve the efficiency or productivity in one domain can have an opposing effect on the other. For example, the rapid dispersion of energy technologies, such as the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in areas with scarce or variable water supplies, can lead to significant localized water stress (Section 3.2.1). Climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and consequently impacts water resources. It is an additional stressor through its effects on other external pressures and thus acts as an amplifier of the already intense competition for water resources. For example, higher temperatures and an increase in the rate of evaporation may affect water supplies directly and potentially increase the water demand for agriculture and energy. Significant levels of uncertainty exist with respect to climate change projections, and these uncertainties increase greatly when focusing on local scales. Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes 22 CHAPTER 2 STATUS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES CHAPTERPDF Image | Water and Energy
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