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3 Energy’s thirst for water WWAP | Richard Connor, Ingvar B. Fridleifsson, Michael Webber and James WInpenny 3.1 Global energy demand Many of the external pressures that drive the increasing demands for water (Section 2.1) also play influential roles in the growing demand for energy. Both are fundamentally driven by (and drivers of) social development and economic growth, and both are strongly influenced by economic forces, increasing living standards, technological development and government policy. One of the main differences, as detailed in Chapter 1, is that market forces have tended to play a much more important role with respect to energy sector development, whereas the management of water resources and the improvement of water-related services have historically been more of a socio-political prerogative. Progressive energy access programmes, accelerated urbanization and rapid economic development in some developing countries have provided access to modern energy services for hundreds of millions of people over the past two decades, especially in China and India. However, nearly one-fifth of the global population, close to 1.3 billion people, did not have access to electricity in 2010, and roughly 2.6 billion people relied on the traditional use of biomass for cooking (IEA, 2012a) (Table 1.1). Global energy demand is expected to grow by more than one-third over the period to 2035, with China, India and the Middle East accounting for about 60% of the increase, according to the IEA’s New Policies Scenario (IEA, 2012a) (see Box 3.1 for a description of IEA scenarios). The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012 estimates global water withdrawals for energy production in 2010 at 583 billion m3 (representing some 15% of the world’s total withdrawals), of which 66 billion m3 was consumed (IEA, 2012a). By 2035, according to its New Policies Scenario (Box 3.1), withdrawals would increase by 20%, whereas consumption would increase by 85%, driven by a shift towards higher efficiency power plants with more advanced cooling systems (that reduce withdrawals but increase consumption) and due to increased production of biofuel. 3.1.1 Water’s role in meeting the growing energy demand Water is crucial for energy. Water is used in the extractive industries for producing fuels such as coal, uranium, oil and gas. Water is an input for energy crops such as corn and sugar cane for ethanol and biomass for fuel pellets. Water is also crucial for cooling purposes in most power plants and the driving force for hydroelectric and steam turbines. 3.1 Scenarios of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2012 The Current Policies Scenario exclusively considers the effects of those government policies and measures that had been enacted or adopted by mid-2012. This scenario does not take into account any possible, potential or even likely future policy actions. The New Policies Scenario is the central scenario of the IEA’s world energy model. This scenario takes into account broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced, even where the specific measures to implement these commitments have yet to be introduced, in addition to those that have already been implemented to address energy-related challenges. The 450 Scenario deliberately selects a plausible energy pathway consistent with actions having about a 50% chance of meeting the goal of limiting the global increase in average temperature to 2°C in the long term, compared with pre-industrial levels. To meet this goal, the long-term concentration of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere needs to be limited to around 450 p.p.m. CO2-eq – hence the scenario’s name. Source: WWAP, from IEA (2012a). 28 CHAPTER 3 STATUS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES BOx CHAPTERPDF Image | Water and Energy
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