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Globally, electricity demand is expected to grow by roughly 70% by 2035. This growth will be almost entirely in non-OECD countries, with China and India accounting for more than half that growth. As shown in Table 3.1 and Figure 3.7, the greatest increases in the power generation mix in both OECD and non-OECD countries are expected to come from renewables. Hydropower is expected to account for the largest portion of the renewable increase in non-OECD countries, whereas wind is predicted to dominate in the OECD. In the absence of sturdy energy policies, the capital cost of the plant is by far the most important driver in the evolution of nuclear power and renewables. Relative costs, which are also influenced by government policies, are the primary driver of the projected changes in the types of fuels and technologies used to generate power (IEA, 2012a). The following sections examine water-related impacts and implications of the main forms of electricity generation and provide an outlook of projected future growth trends that will determine the pressures on water resources. 3.3.1 Thermal power With a direct heat transferring capacity roughly four times greater than air, water is a much more effective coolant. The thermal power sector is a large user of water; in Europe, it is responsible for 43% of total freshwater withdrawals (Rübbelke and Vögele, 2011) and accounts for more than 50% national water withdrawals in several countries (Eurostat, 2010). The thermal power sector is also the single largest user of water in the USA, responsible for nearly half of all water withdrawals, ahead of even agriculture (Kenny et al., 2009). In China, water 3.5 World electricity generation by source of energy as a percentage of world electricity generation, 2011 Waste 0.4% Biofuels 1.5% Wind 2.0% Hydro 15.8% Nuclear 11.7% Oil 4.8% Solar PV 0.3% Geothermal 0.3% Other <0.1% Coal and Peat 41.3% Gas 21.9% Note: PV, solar photovoltaic. Source: WWAP, from data in IEA (2013). 3.6 Access to electricity in developing countries as a percentage of the population, 2011 Source: ChartsBin.com (http://chartsbin.com/view/10471, based on source cited therein [original data from IEA World Energy Outlook statistics at http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp]) (Accessed Oct 2013) and updated with data from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Electricity Access Database (http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/energydevelopment/WEO2013Electricitydatabase.xlsx) for India and Nicaragua. 34 CHAPTER 3 STATUS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES FIGURE FIGUREPDF Image | Water and Energy
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