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11 Asia and the Pacific UNESCAP Nowhere is the critical inter-relationship between water and energy more evident than in the Asia-Pacific region, considering its huge population and size. Home to 61% of the world’s people and with its population expected to reach five billion by 2050 (UNESCAP, 2011), the region’s rapid population growth is accompanied by a burgeoning economic presence. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that developing Asia has an average 6% annual GDP growth, and forecasts a massive rise in energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific region: from barely one- third of global consumption to 51–56% by 2035 (ADB, 2013).29 The ability to address issues of water availability and distribution will play an important role in the region’s capacity to grow and develop. Some areas of the region have water in abundance, with current withdrawals in at least 11 UNESCAP Member States below 10% of total actual renewable freshwater resources (TARWR). Asia’s per capita freshwater availability nonetheless remains half of the global average (FAO, 2011e), and almost 380 million people do not have access to safe drinking water (UNESCAP, 2013). Compounding chronic uncertainties in water availability and quality is the fact that this region is the most vulnerable to climate change impacts in the form of extreme weather-related disasters (UNESCAP, 2013). Asia is also where 46% of the global primary energy is produced (UNESCAP, 2011). Coal is the most prevalent energy product within the region, with China and India together extracting more than half of the world’s total output (World Coal Association, 2011). There is also a growing market for renewable sources such as biofuel, with China, India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand among the leading regional producers (UNESCAP, 2012). Both coal and biofuel require vast amounts of freshwater (Chapter 3), and some areas within the region are already deemed water-scarce (Figure 1.1). Potential sites for hydropower development exist in upstream countries of South-East Asia and South Asia (Figure 3.11), and the majority of added capacity on a global scale in 2011 occurred in Asia (REN21, 2012). But concern over the potential adverse effects of hydropower raises other issues, for example in the lower Mekong delta, where 45 million people are reliant on the river system for their livelihoods and sustenance (ADB, 2013). Twelve dams are set for construction in 2011–2015, and altered river ecology and disrupted fisheries are critical issues (Orr et al., 2012). Whether considering water use in energy production or energy requirements for water service provision, concerns over water availability and energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region are compounded by environmental considerations. The application of multi-scale integrated analyses could be useful in evaluating trade-offs based on societal and ecosystem functioning and requirements. For example, FAO and LIPHE4 (a non-profit scientific association) are studying current trends in future options for balancing food production and groundwater pumping, given the potential reduction of subsidies for electricity use in agriculture, against local sustainability criteria in Punjab, India (FAO/LIPHE4, 2013). 11.1 Hydropower The potential for hydropower generation in countries such as Bhutan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Nepal, and in countries with large populations such as China, India and Thailand presents an economic opportunity, particularly as cross-border power interconnections increase (e.g. ASEAN Power Grid, SAARC Market for Electricity, proposed Asian Energy Highway). Countries with short, swift rivers can benefit from small hydropower installations (100 kW to 30 MW capacity), particularly if these are integrated with land use plans and overall economic development. Such countries include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Republic of Korea, as well as some of the small island developing states (SIDS) in the Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean and South China Sea. Installations may also be advantageous on certain tributaries of big rivers, particularly if these projects extend benefits to rural communities and the alteration of flow patterns does not have significant downstream effects. Small-scale projects 29 ADB’s Asia-Pacific region excludes the Russian Federation. WWDR 2014 ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 89 CHAPTERPDF Image | Water and Energy
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