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Overcoming barriers to geothermal development Upfront risks 21. Compared to other power generation technologies, geothermal projects have unique and inherent risks to their development. These risks can be divided into several categories, as shown in Figure ES-1. Pre-survey and exploration activities are risky in the sense that they often lead to negative conclusions regarding the potential of the geothermal resource; however, they are also low cost activities which do not present substantial financial losses. Test drilling (in red in the figure) is arguably the highest risk activity as it requires the commitment of substantial resources with an uncertain outcome. The success rate for green field deep well drilling is very unpredictable, and the general consensus is that only one out of three drillings is likely to succeed. The success rate will improve with more drillings in a given site with a maximum success rate of around 60-80 percent (Indonesia is the only country where statistically significant data is available and has seen a success rate of 73 percent which is considered to have very favorable conditions). If the first three activities can be successfully carried out, development Figure ES-1: Geothermal Project Risks and Investment Costs Trajectories viPDF Image | Drilling Down on Geothermal Potential Central America
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