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x 28. significantly lower-cost option for future electricity supply in Central America. This conclusion should be qualified, however, because there is a high degree of uncertainty around investment costs and production costs of renewable energy, particularly hydro. For example, the US$2500/kW estimate for geothermal plants, as indicated in the CEAC’s regional expansion plan, was originally derived through consultations with a number of experts in the region and is now considered too low. At best this value is a lower bound for geothermal costs, and the actual costs could be substantially higher. According to interviews with authorities in different countries, development costs in Costa Rica could be around US$4,000 to US$5,700 per kW; for Guatemala, costs are expected to be above US$4,000 per kW, and for Nicaragua they could be between US$4,100 and US$4,500 per kW. These figures yield levelized costs on the order of US$72/MWh (corresponding to US$4,000/kW) to US$89/MWh (corresponding to US$5,000/kW), which is still lower than the average cost of thermal plants and comparable to some hydro plants in the region. 29. Since different generation technologies have varying capacity factors and some technologies can be used to meet peak and off-peak demands at different costs, we compared the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of a broader range of generation technologies by taking into account investment costs, fuel costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs, useful life span, and the discount rate. Table 9 below provides the basic parameters of a set of alternative technology options, including: x Medium Speed Diesel motors (MSD) which operate typically on Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), equivalent to FO #6 and provide a full range of plant factors; their main drawback is the fuel cost which will vary in conjunction with the oil price; MSD engine sizes do not usually exceed 20 MW; x Steam turbines using HFO or coal. Steam turbines exhibit economies of scale, which normally leads to sizes in excess of 100 MW. In the case of coal, investment costs vary widely depending on the environmental mitigation equipment required (which will depend on the grade of the coal), as well as fuel treatment requirements; x Combustion turbines which may operate with either gas oil or natural gas; they may be either simple cycle, or combined cycle, in which case there is a steam turbine powered by heat extracted from the exhaust gases of the combustion turbine. Sizes for CC plants considered in the expansion plans usually do not exceed 150 MW (which is small by global standards but can be justified because of the relatively small sizes of the power systems); the only large plant—at the conceptual stage—consists of an LNG-powered plant in El Salvador. Finally, lately combustion turbines have been designed to operate on heavier fuels; In the case of thermal power plants, a base case projection for crude (US$75/bbl in 2010 to US$118/bbl in 2022), with an average time-weighted oil price level of US$95/bbl which was used for illustrative purposes. For low plant factors, gas turbines show the lowest levelized costs (around US$477–US$300/MWh), for medium-level plant factors (50–60 percent), LNG-fueled combined cycle plants are least cost (around US$118– US$110/MWh), and for high plant factors (above 80 percent), coal has the lowest levelized cost (US$108–US$100/MWh). Hydro and geothermal sources, in comparison to thermal plants, could provide a 14PDF Image | Drilling Down on Geothermal Potential Central America
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