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Chapter 4. Overcoming the Barriers to Geothermal Development in Central America 77. To further develop geothermal resources in Central America, there a number of barriers that must be overcome. This chapter discusses several of the key barriers to increased development of geothermal power in the region and possible solutions to overcome them. In particular, we differentiate the barriers unique to geothermal development and others relevant to geothermal development but may be common to the development of other energy technologies. Upfront risks 78. Compared to other power generation technologies, geothermal projects present unique and inherent risks to their development and these risks vary by stage of project development. Pre-survey and exploration activities are risky in the sense that they often do not lead to successful outcomes. However, they are also low cost activities which do not present substantial financial losses. Test drilling (the figure in red) is arguably the highest risk activity as it requires the commitment of substantial resources with an uncertain outcome. The success rate for green- field deep well drilling is very unpredictable, and the general consensus is that only one in three test drillings is likely to succeed. The success rate will improve with more drillings in a given site with a maximum success rate of around 60-80 percent (Indonesia is the only country where statistically significant data is available and has seen a success rate of 73 percent which is considered to have very favorable conditions). If the first three activities can be successfully carried out, development risk is reduced dramatically. Risks associated with feasibility study and borehole drillings are moderate, which means that once test drilling has proven successful, the project risks become manageable. Risks associated with the construction, start-up and operation of the power plant are generally comparable to other power generating technologies. Geothermal projects also have a long-term geological risk related to declining temperature and permeability, the possibility of high level of mineralization, and problems with the re-injection process of geothermal fluids. However, these risks are considered manageable. 79. Investments needed to mitigate the high, upfront risks for geothermal development are large. Typical deep well drilling costs approximately US$ 2-6 million at present. As shown in Table 13 of an indicative economic cost analysis for the development of a 50 MW green-field geothermal project in a typical geothermal field with drillings of around 2 km in depth, between US$12 and 40 million are needed in the first three phases in order to confirm the geothermal resources with no guaranteed return on investments. The risky, time- and capital-intensive exploration phases are a major deterrent for the private sector to enter the geothermal business as discussed. It is important to note that the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for geothermal plants are equivalent to approximately 3-6 percent of total capital investment costs and low in comparison with thermal generation; the major investments needed for geothermal power projects are upfront capital costs. 80. As shown in Table 13, the three initial exploration stages for a low-cost project add up to US$12 million, equivalent to 12 percent of total investment cost; for a medium cost project they add up to US$23 million (13 percent of project cost), and for a high-cost project they amount to US$39 million (14 percent of total project cost). These three high risk stages of project 34PDF Image | Drilling Down on Geothermal Potential Central America
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