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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy Table 4.2 | Global continental stored heat and EGS technical potentials for electricity. 0–10 0–10 0–5 0–5 0–3 resources as 200 GWe (equivalent to 5.7 EJ/yr with a capacity factor (CF)2 of 90%), with a lower limit of 50 GWe (1.4 EJ/yr). He assumed that unidentified, hidden resources are 5 to 10 times more abundant than the identified ones and then estimated the upper limit for the worldwide geothermal technical potential as between 1,000 and 2,000 GWe (28.4 and 56.8 EJ/yr at 90% CF), with a mean value of 1,500 GWe (~42.6 EJ/yr). Mainly based on those numbers, Krewitt et al. (2009) estimated geothermal technical potential for 2050 at 45 EJ/yr, largely considering only hydrothermal resources. No similar recent calculation of global technical potential for conductive (EGS) geothermal resources has been published, although the study by EPRI (1978) included some estimates as did others (Armstead and Tester, 1987). Estimating the technical potential of EGS is complicated due to the lack of commercial experience to date. EGS field demonstrations must achieve sufficient reservoir productivity and lifetime to prove both the viability of stimulation methods and the scalability of the technol- ogy. Once these features have been demonstrated at several locations, it will be possible to develop better assessments of technical potential, and it is possible that EGS will become a leading geothermal option for electricity and direct use globally because of its widespread availability and lower exploration risk relative to hydrothermal systems. More recently, Tester et al. (2006; see their Table 1.1) estimated the accessible conductive resources in the USA (excluding Alaska, Hawaii and Yellowstone National Park) and calculated that the stored heat at depths less than 10 km is 13.4 x 106 EJ (in conduction-dominated EGS of crystalline basement and sedimentary rock formations). Assuming that 2% of the heat is recoverable and that average temperatures drop 10°C below initial conditions during exploitation, and taking into account all losses in the conversion of recoverable heat into electricity over a lifes- pan of 30 years, electrical generating capacity from EGS in the USA was estimated at 1,249 GWe, corresponding to 35.4 EJ/yr of electricity at a CF of 90% (Tester et al., 2006; see their Table 3.3). Based on the same assumptions for the USA,3 estimates for the global technical potential of EGS-based energy supply can be derived from estimates of the heat 2 Capacity factor (CF) definition is included in the Glossary (Annex I). 3 1 x 106 EJ stored heat equals approximately 2.61 EJ/yr of technical potential for electricity at a 90% CF for 30 years. 1051.8 288.1 364.2 145.9 89.1 stored in the Earth’s crust that is both accessible and recoverable (see Table 4.2, fourth column). Therefore, the global technical potential of geothermal resources for electricity generation can be estimated as the sum of the upper (56.8 EJ/yr) and lower (28.4 EJ/yr) of Stefansson’s estimate for hydrother- mal resources (identified and hidden) and the EGS technical potentials of Table 4.2 (fourth column), obtaining a lower value of 117.5 EJ/yr (down to 3 km depth) to a maximum of 1,108.6 EJ/yr down to 10 km depth (Figure 4.2). It is important to note that the heat extracted to achieve these technical potentials can be fully or partially replenished over the long term by the continental terrestrial heat flow of 315 EJ/yr (Stefansson, 2005) at an average flux of 65 mW/m2. Although hydrother- mal resources are only a negligible fraction of total theoretical potential given in Tester et al. (2005), their contribution to technical potential might be considerably higher than implied by the conversion from theo- retical potential data to technical potential data. This is the rationale for considering the Rowley (1982) estimate for EGS technical potential only and adding the estimate for hydrothermal technical potential from Stefansson (2005). Depth range (km) Technically accessible stored heat from EGS Estimated technical potential (electric) for EGS (EJ/yr) (106 EJ) Source 403 Rowley, 1982 110.4 Tester et al., 2005 139.5 Interpolation between values from Rowley (1982) and EPRI (1978) 55.9 Interpolation between values from Tester et al. (2005) and EPRI (1978) 34.1 EPRI, 1978 Electricity Thermal 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Max Min 10 5 3 Depth [km] Direct Uses Figure 4.2 | Geothermal technical potentials for electricity and direct uses (heat). Direct uses do not require development to depths greater than approximately 3 km (Prepared with data from Tables 4.2 and 4.3). 409 Electric or Thermal [EJ/yr]PDF Image | Geothermal Energy 4
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