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Geothermal Energy Chapter 4 (a) 13 12 11 10 (b) Geothermal (Condensing-Flash), USD2005 1,800 Geothermal (Condensing-Flash), USD2005 2,700 Geothermal (Condensing-Flash), USD2005 3,600 Geothermal (Binary Cycle), USD2005 2,100 Geothermal (Binary Cycle), USD2005 3,650 Geothermal (Binary Cycle), USD2005 5,200 13 12 11 10 Geothermal (Condensing-Flash), Discount Rate = 3% Geothermal (Condensing-Flash), Discount Rate = 7% Geothermal (Condensing-Flash), Discount Rate = 10% Geothermal (Binary Cycle), Discount Rate = 3% Geothermal (Binary Cycle), Discount Rate = 7% Geothermal (Binary Cycle), Discount Rate = 10% 75 80 85 90 Capacity Factor [%] 99 88 Global Average in 2008 77 66 55 44 00 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Capacity Factor [%] 60 65 70 Levelized Cost of Energy [UScent2005 /kWh] Levelized Cost of Energy [UScent2005 /kWh] Figure 4.8 | Current LCOE for geothermal power generation as a function of (left panel) capacity factor and investment cost (discount rate at 7%, mid-value of the O&M cost range, and mid-value of the lifetime range), and (right panel) capacity factor and discount rate (mid-value of the investment cost range, mid-value of the O&M cost range, and mid-value of the lifetime range) (see also Annex III). lowest and highest investment cost, respectively. Achieving a 90% life- time average CF in new power plants can lead to a roughly 17% lower LCOE (Figure 4.8). The complete range of LCOE estimates, considering variations in plant lifetime, O&M costs, investment costs, discount rates and CFs, can vary from US cents2005 3.1 to 13/kWh for condensing flash plants and from US cents2005 3.3 to 17/kWh for binary plants (see also Annex III and Chapters 1 and 10). No actual LCOE data exist for EGS, but some projections have been made using different models for several cases with diverse temperatures and depths (Table 9.5 in Tester et al., 2006). These projections do not include projected cost reductions due to future learning and technology improvements, and all estimates for EGS carry higher uncertainties than for conventional hydrothermal resources. The obtained LCOE values for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology EGS model range from US cents2005 10 to 17.5/kWh for relatively high-grade EGS resources (250°C to 330°C, 5-km depth wells) assuming a base case present-day produc- tivity of 20 kg/s per well. Another model for a hypothetical EGS project in Europe considers two wells at 4 km depth, 125°C to 165°C reservoir temperature, 33 to 69 kg/s flow rate and a binary power unit of 1.6 MWe running with an annual capacity factor of 86%, and obtains LCOE values of US cents2005 30 to 37/kWh (Huenges and Frick, 2010).17 4.7.5 Prospects for future cost trends The prospects for technical improvements outlined in Section 4.6 indi- cate that there is potential for cost reductions in the near and longer term for both conventional geothermal technology and EGS. Additionally, the future costs for geothermal electricity are likely to vary widely because 17 Further assumptions, for example, about O&M costs, lifetime, CFs and the discount rate may be available from the references. future deployment will include an increasing percentage of unconven- tional development types, such as EGS, as mentioned in Section 4.8. The following estimates are based on possible cost reductions from design changes and technical advancements, relying solely on expert knowledge of the geothermal process value chain. Published learning curve studies for geothermal are limited, so the other major approach to forecasting future costs, extrapolating from historical learning rates, is not pursued here. See Section 10.5 for a more complete discussion of learning curves, including their advantages and limitations. Foreseeable technological advances were presented in Section 4.6. Those potentially having the greatest impact on LCOEs in the near term are: (a) engineering improvements in design and stimulation of geo- thermal reservoirs; and (b) improvements in materials, operation and maintenance mentioned in Section 4.6.3 as well as some from Section 4.6.1. These changes will increase energy extraction rates and lead to a better plant performance, and less frequent and shorter maintenance periods, all of which will result in better CFs. With time, more efficient plants (with CFs of 90 and 95%) are expected to replace the older ones still in operation, increasing the average CF to between 80 and 95% (Fridleifsson et al., 2008). Accordingly, the worldwide average CF for 2020 is projected to be 80%, and could be 85% in 2030 and as high as 90% in 2050. Important improvements in drilling techniques described in Section 4.6.2 are expected to reduce drilling costs. Drilling cost reductions due to increasing experience are also based on historic learning curves for deep oil and gas drilling (Tester et al., 2006). Since drilling costs rep- resent at least between 20 and 35% of total investment cost (Section 4.7.1), and also impact the O&M cost due to the cost of make-up wells, a lower LCOE can be expected as drilling cost decreases. Additionally, an increased success rate for exploration, development and make-up 426PDF Image | Geothermal Energy 4
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