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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy wells is also foreseeable. Nevertheless, these reductions are unlikely to be achieved in the near term, and were not included in projections for LCOE reductions by 2020. Other improvements in exploration, surface installations, materials and power plants mentioned in Sections 4.6.2 and 4.6.3 are likely, and should lead to reduced costs. Based on those premises, future potential LCOEs were calculated for 2020. For greenfield projects the worldwide average projected LCOE for condensing flash plants with a distribution of investment costs ranges from US cents2005 4.5 to 6.6/kWh and for binary-cycle plants ranges from US cents2005 4.9 to 8.6/kWh, at a CF of 80%, 27.5-year lifetime and dis- count rate of 7%. Therefore, a global average LCOE reduction of about 7% is expected for geothermal flash and binary plants by 2020. For projected future costs for EGS, a sensitivity analysis of model vari- ables carried out in Australia obtained near-term LCOE estimates of between AU$ 92 and AU$ 110 per MWh, equivalent to US cents2005 6.3 and 7.5/kWh, which are slightly higher than comparable estimates from Credit Suisse (Cooper et al., 2010). Another model (Sanyal et al., 2007) suggested that the LCOE for EGS will decline with increasing stimulated 4.7.6 Costs of direct uses and geothermal heat pumps Direct-use project costs have a wide range, depending upon specific use, temperature and flow rate required, associated O&M and labour costs, and output of the produced product. In addition, costs for new construction are usually less than costs for retrofitting older structures. The cost figures given in Table 4.8 are based on a climate typical of the northern half of the USA or Europe. Heating loads would be higher for more northerly climates such as Iceland, Scandinavia and Russia. Most figures are based on cost in the USA (in USD2005), but would be similar in developed countries and lower in developing countries (Lund and Boyd, 2009). Some assumptions for the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) estimates pre- sented in Table 4.8 are mentioned in Annex III. For building heating, assumptions included a load factor of 25 to 30%, investment cost of USD2005 1,600 to 3,900/kWth and a lifetime of 20 years, and for district heating, the same load factor, USD2005 600 to 1,600/kWth and a lifetime of 25 years. Thermal load density (heating load per unit of land area) is critical to the feasibility of district heating because it is one of the Table 4.8 | Investment costs and calculated levelized cost of heat (LCOH) for several geothermal direct applications (investment costs are rounded and taken from Lund, 1995; Balcer, 2000; Radeckas and Lukosevicius, 2000; Reif, 2008; Lund and Boyd, 2009). Heat application Investment cost USD2005/kWth LCOH in USD2005/GJ at discount rates of 3% 7% 10% 1,600–3,940 20–50 24–65 570–1,570 12–24 14–31 500–1,000 7.7–13 8.6–14 50–100 8.5–11 8.6–12 940–3,750 14–42 17–56 Space heating (buildings) Space heating (districts) Greenhouses Uncovered aquaculture ponds GHP (residential and commercial) volume and replication of EGS units, with increasing the maximum prac- ticable pumping rate from a well, and with the reduced rate of cooling of the produced fluid (LCOE increases approximately US cents2005 0.45/ kWh per additional degree Celsius of cooling per year), which in turn can be achieved by improving the effectiveness of stimulation by closely spaced fractures (Sanyal, 2010). Tester et al. (2006) suggested that a four-fold improvement in productivity to 80 kg/s per well by 2030 would be possible and that the projected LCOE values would range from US cents2005 3.6 to 5.2/kWh for high-grade EGS resources, and for low-grade geologic settings (180°C to 220°C, 5- to 7-km depth wells) LCOE would also become more economically viable at about US cents2005 5.9 to 9.2/ kWh.18 18 Further assumptions, for example, about future O&M costs, lifetime, CFs and the discount rate may be available from the references. 28–77 15–38 9.3–16 8.6–12 19–68 major determinants of the distribution network capital and operating costs. Thus, downtown high-rise buildings are better candidates than a single family residential area (Bloomquist et al., 2001). Generally, a thermal load density of about 1.2 x 109 J/hr/ha (120,000 J/hr/m2) is recommended. The LCOH calculation for greenhouses assumed a load factor of 0.50, and 0.60 for uncovered aquaculture ponds and tanks, with a lifespan of 20 years. Covered ponds and tanks have higher investment costs than uncovered ones, but lower heating requirements. GHP project costs vary between residential installations and commer- cial/institutional installations. Heating and/or cooling large buildings lowers the investment cost and LCOH. In addition, the type of installa- tion, closed loop (horizontal or vertical) or open loop using groundwater, 427PDF Image | Geothermal Energy 4
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