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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy Table 4.9 | Regional current and forecast installed capacity for geothermal power and direct uses (heat, including GHP) and forecast generation of electricity and heat by 2015. OECD North America 43.1 Latin America 7.2 OECD Europe 13.9 Africa 3.8 Transition Economies 1.3 Middle East 0 Developing Asia 40.4 OECD Pacific 11.9 Notes: * For regional definitions and country groupings see Annex II. Current and forecast data for electricity taken from Bertani (2010), and for direct uses from Lund et al. (2010a), both as of December 2009. Estimated average annual growth rate in 2010 to 2015 is 11.5% for power and 11% for direct uses. Average worldwide capacity factors of 75% (for electric) and 30% (for direct use) were assumed by 2015. REGION* Current capacity (2010) Forecast capacity (2015) Forecast generation (2015) Direct (GWt h ) Electric (GWe ) Direct (GWt h ) Electric (GWe ) Direct (TWt h /yr) Electric (TWhe / yr) 13.9 4.1 27.5 6.5 72.3 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.1 2.9 20.4 1.6 32.8 2.1 86.1 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.6 5.8 1.1 0.08 1.6 0.2 6.1 4.3 2.4 0 2.8 0 7.3 9.2 3.2 14.0 36.7 2.8 1.2 3.3 1.8 8.7 TOTAL 50.6 10.7 85.2 18.5 224.0 121.6 Andes mountain chain, also have significant untapped—and under- explored—hydrothermal resources (Bertani, 2010). For island nations with mature histories of geothermal development, such as New Zealand, Iceland, the Philippines and Japan, identified geothermal resources could allow for a future expansion potential of two to five times existing installed capacity, although constraints such as limited grid capacity, existing or planned generation (from other renewable energy sources) and environmental factors (such as national park status of some resource areas) may limit the hydro- thermal geothermal deployment. Indonesia is thought to be one of the world’s richest countries in geothermal resources and, along with other volcanic islands in the Pacific Ocean (Papua-New Guinea, Solomon, Fiji, etc.) and the Atlantic Ocean (Azores, Caribbean, etc.) has significant potential for growth from known hydrothermal resources, but is market-constrained in growth potential. Remote parts of Russia (Kamchatka) and China (Tibet) contain iden- tified high-temperature hydrothermal resources, the use of which could be significantly expanded given the right incentives and grid access to load centres. Parts of other South-East Asian nations and India contain numerous hot springs, inferring the possibility of poten- tial, as yet unexplored, hydrothermal resources. Additionally, small-scale distributed geothermal developments could be an important base-load power source for isolated population cen- tres in close proximity to geothermal resources, particularly in areas of Indonesia, the Philippines and Central and South America. 4.8.2 Long-term deployment in the context of carbon mitigation The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimated a potential contri- bution of geothermal to world electricity supply by 2030 of 633 TWh/ yr (2.28 EJ/yr), equivalent to about 2% of the total (Sims et al., 2007). Other forecasts for the same year range from 173 TWh/yr (0.62 EJ/yr) (IEA, 2009) to 1,275 TWh/yr (4.59 EJ/yr) (Teske et al., 2010). A summary of the literature on the possible future contribution of RE supplies in meeting global energy needs under a range of GHG con- centration stabilization scenarios is provided in Chapter 10. Focusing specifically on geothermal energy, Figure 4.9 (left) presents modelling results for the global supply of geothermal energy in EJ/yr. About 120 different long-term scenarios underlie Figure 4.9 that derive from a diversity of modelling teams, and span a wide range of assumptions for—among other variables—energy demand growth, the cost and availability of competing low-carbon technologies, and the cost and availability of RE technologies (including geothermal energy). Chapter 10 discusses how changes to some of these variables impact RE deployment outcomes, with Section 10.2.2 providing a description of the literature from which the scenarios have been taken. In Figure 4.9 (left) the geothermal energy deployment results under these scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 are presented for three GHG concentration stabilization ranges, based on the AR4: Baselines (>600 ppm CO2), Categories III and IV (440 to 600 ppm) and Categories I and II (<440 ppm), all by 2100. Results are presented for the median scenario, the 25th to 75th percentile range among the scenarios, and the minimum and maximum scenario results. Primary energy is provided as direct equivalent, that is, each unit of heat or electricity is accounted for as one unit at the primary energy level.20 The long-term projections presented in Figure 4.9 (left) span a broad range. The 25th to 75th percentile ranges of all three scenarios are 0.07 20 In scenario ensemble analyses such as the review underlying Figure 4.9, there is a constant tension between the fact that the scenarios are not truly a random sample and the sense that the variation in the scenarios does still provide real and often clear insights into collective knowledge or lack of knowledge about the future (see Section 10.2.1.2 for a more detailed discussion). 429PDF Image | Geothermal Energy 4
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