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Geothermal Energy Chapter 4 (a) (b) Heat Electricity CO2 Concentration Levels Baselines Cat. III + IV (440 - 600 ppm) Cat. I + II (< 440 ppm) N=122 60 60 50 50 40 40 20 30 20 20 10 10 00 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 Figure 4.9 | Global primary energy supply of geothermal energy. Left panel: In long-term scenarios (median, 25th to 75th percentile range, and full range of scenario results; colour coding is based on categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100; the specific number of scenarios underlying the figure is indicated in the right upper corner) (adapted from Krey and Clarke, 2011; see also Chapter 10). Right panel: Estimated in Section 4.8.2 as potential geothermal deployments for electricity and heat applications. Table 4.10 | Potential geothermal deployments for electricity and direct uses in 2020 through 2050. 2020 2.01 2030 5.23 Year Use Capacity1 (GW) Generation (TWh/yr) Generation (EJ/yr) Total (EJ/yr) Electricity 25.9 181.8 0.65 Direct 143.6 377.5 1.36 Electricity 51.0 380.0 1.37 Direct 407.8 1,071.7 3.86 Electricity 150.0 1,182.8 4.26 Direct 800.0 2,102.3 7.57 2050 11.83 Note: 1. Installed capacities for 2020 and 2030 are extrapolated from 2015 estimates at 7% annual growth rate for electricity and 11% for direct uses, and for 2050 are the middle value between projections from Bertani (2010) and Goldstein et al. (2011). Generation was estimated with an average worldwide CF of 80% (2020), 85% (2030) and 90% (2050) for electricity and of 30% for direct uses. to 1.38 EJ/yr by 2020, 0.10 to 2.85 EJ/yr by 2030 and 0.11 to 5.94 EJ/yr by 2050. The scenario medians range from 0.39 to 0.71 EJ/yr for 2020, 0.22 to 1.28 EJ/yr for 2030 and 1.16 to 3.85 EJ/yr for 2050. The medians for 2030 are lower than the IPCC AR4 estimate of 2.28 EJ/yr, which is for electric generation only, although the latter lies in the 25th to 75th percentile range of the most ambitious GHG concentration stabilization scenarios presented in Figure 4.9 (left). Figure 4.9 (left) shows that geo- thermal deployment is sensitive to the GHG concentration level, with greater deployment correlated with lower GHG concentration stabiliza- tion levels. Based on geothermal technical potentials and market activity discussed in Sections 4.2 and 4.4, and on the expected geothermal deployment by 2015, the projected medians for geothermal energy supply and the 75th percentile amounts of all the modelled scenarios are technically reach- able for 2020, 2030 and 2050. As indicated above, climate policy is likely to be one of the main driving factors of future geothermal development, and under the most favour- able policy of CO2 emissions (<440 ppm) geothermal deployment by 2020, 2030 and 2050 could be higher than the 75th percentile estimates of Figure 4.9, as a simple extrapolation exercise shows. By projecting the historic average annual growth rates of geothermal power plants (7%) and direct uses (11%) from the estimates for 2015 (Table 4.9), the geo- thermal deployment in 2020 and 2030 would reach the figures shown in Table 4.10 (see also Figure 4.9, right). By 2050 the projected installed capacity of geothermal power plants would be between 140 GWe (Bertani, 2010) and 160 GWe (Goldstein et al., 2011), with one-half of them being of EGS type, while the potential installed capacity for direct uses could reach 800 GWth (Bertani, 2010). Potential deployment and generation for 2050 are also shown in Table 4.10 and Figure 4.9 (right). 430 Global Geothermal Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr] Global Geothermal Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr]PDF Image | Geothermal Energy 4
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