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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy The total contribution (thermal and electric) of geothermal energy would be 2 EJ/yr by 2020, 5.2 EJ/yr by 2030 and 11.8 EJ/yr by 2050 (Table 4.10), where each unit of heat or electricity is accounted for as one unit at the primary energy level. These estimates practically double the estimates for the 75th percentile of Figure 4.9, because many of the approximately 120 reviewed scenarios have not included the potential for EGS devel- opment in the long term. Future geothermal deployment may not follow its historic growth rate between 2015 and 2030. In fact, it could be higher (e.g., Krewitt et al., (2009) adopted an annual growth rate of 10.4% for electric deployment between 2005 and 2030), or lower. Yet the results from this extrapo- lation exercise indicate that future geothermal deployment may reach levels in the 75 to 100% range of Figure 4.9 rather than in the 25 to 75% range. Note that for 2030, the extrapolated geothermal electric generation of 380 TWh/yr (1.37 EJ/yr) is lower than the IPCC AR4 estimate (633 TWh/ yr or 2.28 EJ/yr). Teske et al. (2010) estimate the electricity demand to be 25,851 to 27,248 TWh/yr by 2020, 30,133 to 34,307 TWh/yr in 2030 and 37,993 to 46,542 TWh/yr in 2050. The geothermal share would be around 0.7% of global electric demand by 2020, 1.1 to 1.3% by 2030 and 2.5 to 3.1% by 2050. Teske et al. (2010) project the global demand for heating and cooling by 2020 to be 156.8 EJ/yr, 162.4 EJ/yr in 2030 and 161.7 EJ/yr in 2050. Geothermal would then supply about 0.9% of the total demand by 2020, 2.4% by 2030 and 4.7% by 2050. The high levels of deployment shown in Figure 4.9 could not be achieved without economic incentive policies to reduce GHG emissions and increase RE. Policy support for research and development (subsi- dies, guarantees and tax write-offs for initial deep drilling) would assist in the demonstration and commercialization of some geothermal tech- nologies such as EGS and other non-conventional geothermal resource development. Feed-in tariffs with confirmed geothermal prices, and direct subsidies for district and building heating would also help to accelerate deployment. The deployment of geothermal energy can also be fostered with drilling subsidies, targeted grants for pre-competitive research and demonstration to reduce exploration risk and the cost of EGS development. In addition, the following issues are worth noting. Resource potential: Even the highest estimates for the long-term contribution of geothermal energy to the global primary energy sup- ply (52.5 EJ/yr by 2050, Figure 4.9, left) are well within the technical potentials described in Section 4.2 (118 to 1,109 EJ/yr for electricity and 10 to 312 EJ/yr for heat, see Figure 4.2) and even within the upper range of hydrothermal resources (28.4 to 56.8 EJ/yr). Thus, technical potential is not likely to be a barrier in reaching more ambitious levels of geothermal deployment (electricity and direct uses), at least on a global basis. Regional deployment: Future deployment of geothermal power plants and direct uses are not the same for every region. Availability of financing, water, transmission and distribution infrastructure and other factors will play major roles in regional deployment rates, as will local geothermal resource conditions. For instance, in the USA, Australia and Europe, EGS concepts are already being field tested and deployed, pro- viding advantages for accelerated deployment in those regions as risks and uncertainties are reduced. In other rapidly developing regions in Asia, Africa and South America, as well as in remote and island settings where distributed power supplies are needed, factors that would affect deployment include market power prices, population density, market distance, electricity and heating and cooling demand. Supply chain issues: No mid- or long-term constraints to materials supply, labour availability or manufacturing capacity are foreseen from a global perspective. Technology and economics: GHP, district heating, hydrothermal and EGS methods are available, with different degrees of maturity. GHP sys- tems have the widest market penetration, and an increased deployment can be supported by improving the coefficient of performance and installation efficiency. The direct use of thermal fluids from deep aqui- fers, and heat extraction using EGS, can be increased by further technical advances in accessing and fracturing geothermal reservoirs. Combined heat and power applications may also be particularly attractive for EGS and low-temperature hydrothermal resource deployment. To achieve a more efficient and sustainable geothermal energy supply, subsurface exploration risks need to be reduced and reservoir management needs to be improved by optimizing injection strategies and avoiding excessive depletion. Improvement in energy utilization efficiency from cascaded use of geothermal heat is an effective deployment strategy when mar- kets permit. Evaluation of geothermal plants performance, including heat and power EGS installations, needs to take into account heat qual- ity of the fluid by considering the useful energy that can be converted to electric power. These technological improvements will influence the economics of geothermal energy. Integration and transmission: The site-specific geographic location of conventional hydrothermal resources results in transmission constraints for future deployment. However, no integration problems have been observed once transmission issues are solved, due to the base-load char- acteristic of geothermal electricity. In the long term, fewer transmission 431PDF Image | Geothermal Energy 4
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