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Drilling Technology and Costs

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Drilling Technology and Costs ( drilling-technology-and-costs )

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6­12 Chapter 6 Drilling Technology and Costs 6.3.2 MIT Depth Dependent (MITDD) drilling­cost index To make comparisons between geothermal well costs and oil and gas well costs, a drilling cost index is needed to update the costs of drilling hydrothermal and HDR/EGS wells from their original completion dates to current values. The MIT Depth Dependent (MITDD) drilling cost index (Augustine et al., 2006) was used to normalize geothermal well costs from the past 30 years to year 2004 U.S. $. The average cost per well at each depth interval in the JAS reports (1976­2004) was used to create the drilling index, because the drilling process is essentially the same for oil, gas, and geothermal wells. A 17% inflation rate was assumed for pre­1976 index points. Only onshore, completed oil and gas wells in the United States were considered, because all hydrothermal and HDR wells to­date have been drilled onshore. A three­year moving average was used to smooth out short­ term fluctuations in price. The index was referenced to 1977, which is the first year for which a moving average could be calculated using data reported by JAS from the previous and following years. Previous indices condense all information from the various depth intervals into a single index number for each year. This biases the indices toward the cost of shallower wells, which are normally drilled in much larger numbers each year, and also makes them prone to error in years where a disproportionate number of either deep or shallow wells are drilled. The MITDD drilling index was chosen because it avoids these pitfalls by incorporating both depth and year information into the index. Although this method requires slightly more information and more work, it results in superior estimates of normalized drilling costs. The MIT Depth Dependent drilling cost index is tabulated in Table A.6.2 and shown in Figure 6.2, which clearly illustrates how widely the drilling indices vary among the different depth intervals. Before 1986, the drilling cost index rose more quickly for deeper wells than shallower wells. By 1982, the index for the deepest wells is almost double the index for shallow wells. After 1986, the index for shallow wells began to rise more quickly than the index for deeper wells. By 2004, the index for wells in the 1,250­2,499 ft (380­760 m) range is 25%­50% greater than all other intervals. Although it has the same general trend as the MITDD index, the composite index (MIT Composite) – made by calculating the average cost per well per year as in previous indices – does not capture these subtleties. Instead, it incorrectly over­ or under­predicts well­cost updates, depending on the year and depth interval. For example, using the previous method, the index would incorrectly over­predict the cost of a deep well drilled in 1982 by more than 20% when normalized to year 2004 U.S. $. The MITDD indices are up to 35% lower for wells over 4 km (13,000 ft) deep in 2004 than the previous index. The often drastic difference between index values of the MIT Composite index – based on average costs and the new MITDD index shown in Figure 6.2 from two given years – demonstrates the superiority of the new MITDD index as a means for more accurately updating well costs.

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