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6.7 Conclusions Drilling Technology and Costs Wellcost Lite is a detailed accounting code for estimating drilling costs, developed by B. J. Livesay and Sandia National Laboratories over the past 20 years. Wellcost Lite, which has been used to evaluate technology impacts and project EGS well costs, was used to estimate costs covering a range of depths from 1,500 m to 10,000 m. Three depth categories have been examined in some detail in this study: shallow wells (1,5003,000 m depths), midrange wells (4,0005,000 m depths), and deep wells (5,00010,000 m depths). The shallow set of wells at depths of 1,500 m (4,900 ft), 2,500 m (8,200 ft), and 3,000 m (9,800 ft) is representative of current hydrothermal well depths. The predicted costs from the Wellcost Lite model were compared to actual EGS and hydrothermal shallow well drillingcost records that were available. The agreement is satisfactory, although actual cost data are relatively scarce, making a direct comparison not entirely appropriate. The same welldesign concepts used for the shallow set of wells was also adopted for the midrange set, which comprised wells at depths of 4,000 m and 5,000 m (13,120 ft and 16,400 ft). There were no detailed geothermal or EGS wellcost records at these depths available for comparison with model results. Nonetheless, we believe our predicted wellcost modeling approach is conservative and, as such, produces reasonable estimates of the costs of EGS wells for 4 and 5 km drilling depths. A similar approach was taken for the deepest set of wells at depths of 6,000 m, 7,500 m, and 10,000 m (19,700 ft, 24,600 ft, and 32,800 ft). These deeper well designs and costs are naturally more speculative than estimates for the shallower wells. There have been only two or three wells drilled close to depths of 10,000 m in the United States, so a conservative well design was used to reflect higher uncertainty. The estimated costs for the EGS wells are shown in Table 6.1, which shows that the number of casing strings is a critical parameter in determining the well costs. Welldrilling costs have been estimated for 4, 5, and 6casing well designs. For example, Table 6.1 shows that two 5,000 m deep wells were modeled, one with 4 casing intervals and another with 5 casing intervals. The former requires fewer casing intervals but increased lengths of individual sections may raise concerns about wellbore stability. This is less of a problem if more casing strings are used, but costs will be affected by an increase in the diameter of the upper casing strings, the size of rig required, and a number of other parameters. The 6,000 m well was modeled with both 5 and 6 casing intervals. Costs for the 7,500 m and 10,000 m wells were estimated using 6 casing intervals. Figure 6.1 shows the actual costs of geothermal wells, including some for EGS wells. The specific costs predicted by the Wellcost Lite model are plotted in hollow red diamonds (�). The modeled costs show reasonable agreement with actual geothermal well costs in the mid to deepdepth ranges, within expected ranges of variation. The agreement is not as good for shallow well costs. Also shown in Figure 6.1 are average costs for completed oil and gas wells drilled onshore in the United States, where we see an exponential dependence of cost on depth. Emerging technologies, which have yet to be demonstrated in geothermal applications and are still going through development and commercialization, can be expected to significantly reduce the cost 629 Chapter 6PDF Image | Drilling Technology and Costs
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