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8.4 Solar Electric Systems (Photovoltaic) Solar Electric Systems (Photovoltaic) have already proved their advantages over conventional energy sources in remote, off-grid applications and in mobile specialist devices such as watches and calculators. These applications have already created a successful PV manufacturing industry. The really widespread deployment of PV energy in the grid-connected market hinges on the development of improved materials and innovative concepts for a new generation of PV systems. These might include organic or hybrid solar cells, the improvement of thin film technology for PV materials, the further development of PV processing and automated manufacturing technologies. The potential of solar resource for photovoltaic systems is “unlimited”, the market in developing countries for stand-alone systems huge. In Europe, grid-connected PV systems are of interest. The vision for long-term PV-contribution to electricity supply may be about 30% of electricity production in small villages in developing countries, and of about 10% of electricity production by grid-connected systems in Europe. Under this assumption, the estimates for 2050 are of about 15 EJ/year worldwide and up to 5 EJ/year in Europe. 8.5 Wind Energy The potential for the increased use of wind energy is huge. The report, “Wind Force 12”, makes estimates of wind energy’s technical potential in Europe and worldwide by calculating areas with an annual average wind speed exceeding 5 metres per second at a height of 10 m. The estimated potential in Europe is about 4 800 TWh per year (17 EJ/year) and worldwide some 53 000 TWh per year (191 EJ/year). It is foreseen that offshore wind turbines will produce much of the future contribution. Naturally, the exploitable potential is rather less. Experience in Denmark and Germany suggests that it is feasible to utilise about 10% of the technical potential. Using this assumption, the European Wind Energy Association sets up a scenario for the deployment in which wind turbines in Europe (EU-15) in 2020 produce 425 TWh annually – some 12% of the expected electricity consumption in Europe (EU-15) at that time. In “Wind Force 12” the EWEA suggests that wind power is capable of supplying 12% of the world’s electricity demand in 2020, even if the overall demand increases until then by two-thirds. Whether such scenarios will become commercially attractive depends on whether or not wind power can be made competitive with the cheapest alternative including cost of back-up and external costs. The European Commission, in its “European Energy and Transport – Trends to 2030”, predicts differently for EU-25, giving wind power an 11% share of electricity generation in 2020. 8.6 Geothermal Energy Per definition, geothermal energy is the energy in form of heat below the earth’s surface. It has been used since antique times for heating, and for about 100 years also for electricity generation. Its potential is inexhaustible in human terms, comparable to that of the sun. Beside electric power generation, geothermal energy is today used for district heating, as well as for heating (and cooling) of individual buildings, including offices, shops, small residential houses, etc. 30PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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