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11. Towards a Sustainable Energy System Energy systems are the main indicators of the global economy. The industrialised economies of the world show over the past couple of centuries an economic cycle for new energy systems and technological innovations of 50 to 60 years. Examples are the transition period from coal to oil and oil to gas. This indicates that new energy technologies introduced to the energy sector over the last 20 years (wind turbines, bio-energy and solar technologies) will massively be integrated in the energy sector in the decades to come. This will lead to industrial learning and to move down the learning curve for these technologies. On the other hand we can generally expect fewer completely new energy innovations in the decades to come. Experience suggests that new energy technologies require timescales of 20 to 30 years or even longer between prototype and widespread adoptions. Lon-term energy scenarios indicate that radical social und technical changes are needed if we are to reduce our alliance on fossil fuels. Governmental-base energy R&D is essential if radical changes in the energy system are to be achieved. The substitution of fossil fuels by Renewables leads to significant reduction of CO2 emissions and to a diversification of supply resources and therefore to a greater security of energy supply. Renewables support the development of a sustainable energy system as a requirement for economic sustainable development. On the political level, this fact was reflected in a continuous promotion of Renewables in EU-Member States through promotional policies – including subsidies. Any long-term vision for European economic development must include Renewables, to save finite energy sources and to build up an industry of strategic importance: Renewable Energy is essential for a Sustainable Energy System 11.1 Requirements and Options for Future Energy Systems The coming decades will bring big changes in energy systems throughout the world. The systems are expected to become more “intelligent” with change from central power plants producing electricity and heat to the customers to a combination of central units and a variety of distributed units such as renewable energy technologies and to e.g. fuel cells. Energy systems can be made more robust by decentralising both power generation and control. The use of more distributed power generation systems would be an important element in the production for the consumers against power interruptions and blackouts, whether caused by technical faults, natural disasters or terrorism (H. Larsen, L.S. Petersen et al). Despite the rapid development and market introduction of new energy technologies with renewable sources such as wind, solar, biomass and geothermal, the world will continue to depend on fossil fuels for several decades to come, and global primary energy demand is forecasted to grow by 60% between 2002 and 2030 (IEA-World Energy Outlook 2004). The 40PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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